Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label statistics. Show all posts

Sunday, April 19, 2020

4/19/20 Report - Top Discoeries of The 2010s. Mysterious Clay Head. Things To Do While Waiting.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Source: See TheGuardian.com link below.


TheGuardian.com lists the ten most significant discoveries of the 2010s as determine by the Historic Buildings and Monuments Commission for England.   The discovering include the following.

Where Richard III was laid to rest.  He was under a car park in Leicester.

What food the Bronze Age population of Fens ate.

Steps taken by villagers to prevent corpses from rising from the dead.

The discovery of a Bronze Age settlement in Cambridgehire.

The discovery of the Elizabethan playhouse where Shakespeare's Hamlet Premiered.

Excavation of the shipwreck of the London that blew up in 1655.

A rabbit bone that shows that rabbits (native to Spain and France) arrived in England 1000 years earlier than previously thought.

An Anglo-Saxon burial site containing over 80 wooden coffins.

An early Roman settlement in Yorkshire.

And new radiocarbon dating that method that immensely vastly improves accuracy.

Here is the link to the article, which provides links to many of the individual stories.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/dec/28/richard-iii-and-a-roman-rabbit-the-finds-of-the-decade


---



.. Almost four decades later scientists returned to the mystery of this man from the Tagar culture which is known for its elaborate funeral rites, for example the use of large pit-crypts containing some 200 bodies which were set ablaze. 

As scientist Dr Elga Vadetskaya had observed, the heads of the dead were covered in clay, moulding a new face on the skull, and often covering the clay face with gypsum. 

So the expectation was - in deploying new technology on the man’s death mask - that the bones inside, though small fragments, would be human.

But they were not...

There was a ram's skull inside.


Unique case.

Here is the link for more about that.

https://siberiantimes.com/science/casestudy/features/mystery-of-unique-2100-year-old-human-clay-head-found-in-ancient-crematorium-with-a-rams-skull-inside/


---

There is always plenty to do.  Research sites or finds.  Clean finds.

Work on your equipment. Get to know it a little better.  You can always do air tests, or get out in the yard.

You can also improve your equipment.  Strengthen weak points.  Make a new scoop, or just handy modifications.

Be sure you have batteries or whatever you need and that everything is in good order.

It sounds like South Carolina is scheduled to open up next week.  I would expect us to be not far behind.

Anyone trying to figure out when the Florida beaches might be opened might be interested in the Florida COVID statistics, which can be found using the following link.

https://floridadisaster.org/globalassets/covid19/dailies/covid-19-data---daily-report-2020-04-18-1639.pdf.

St. Lucie County shows 202 COVID cases, for example.  And I think it was something like 56 hospitalizations.  Of the hospitalized, about a quarter died.

I have serious questions about the data, but it is all we have.

With a forty year career in Health Information Management, my wife would like to be able to get this data in a spreadsheet.  Any quick tips.  Can we find it in spreadsheet form, or easily convert it to spreadsheet?

By the way, of the Florida COVID cases, a good percentage are confirmed travel related, and there is another big percentage that are unconfirmed but possible travel related.  Of the travel related cases in St. Lucie the vast majority are NY/NJ.

----

The opening of Jacksonville beach attracted a lot of attention around the country, being applauded by one side and described as an absolute horror by the other.

You'll see some photos taken from an angle to make the beaches look totally packed, and other photos that show good spacing.  Photos can lie too.  I was thinking of posting a site that shows photos illustrating optical illusions, but it didn't occur to me how relevant that was until just now.  I'll have to look that up again.

The surf is small right now, so it isn't like we're missing any big opportunity.

Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.ent

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

4/15/20 Report - 1944 Metal Detecting Experiences. Keeping Detecting Records. Using Statistics.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Illustration From 295 Combat Engineer Battalion History.


If you want to really learn history, one of the best things to do is research your own family.  You'll be surprised by the stories you'll find.

Here is how the young men of America were using metal detectors in 1944, as described in the history of the 295th Combat Engineer Battalion.

July, 1944. Normandy Campaign.   We didn't have much time to step back and admire that road.  There was too much to be done.  The Krauts had done their spring sowing early and well.  Mines were everywhere.  There were mines in roads, around roads, under dead cattle, and under dead doughboys.  We had to clear them.  

There's nothing quite so nerve-wracking as mine clearance.  One man walks along waving his mine-detector in the area before him.... suddenly the electric impulse from the apparatus detects something metallic lying in the ground.  A second man, walking in the footsteps of the first, cautiously digs his bayonet into the ground, feeling for the mine.  We must be very careful not to dig too hard.  

The mine is then uncovered and either de-activated or removed, or else blown where it lies.  There are booby traps to add to the discomfort and fear.  The krauts had lots of new tricks and ways to kill, but we were careful, and we had learned our lessons well in training.

It wouldn't have been so bad if there were always mines where the detector picked up something, but there would be days when only pieces of shrapnel were found, and days when miles of sweeping was accomplished, with nothing found at all.  The temptation to rush and become a little careless was always present.  Then we would hear stories of men who had rushed and we became careful again.  We swept mile after mile of road, scores of fields, and myriads of twisting footpaths.

There was a stretch of road near Villieres-Fossard which had been swept previously by three other engineer units and it was reported that vehicles were still hitting mines there, a  half-track being the most recent casualty.  "B" Company swept it and studied the pattern as reported by mines found in previous attempts at clearance.  They found three French mines and one German Tellermine still there.  The shrapnel was so thick in this sector that they still couldn't pronounce it cleared with assurance, so they got a bulldozer in there and cut off several inches of road surface and sept it again, then pronounced it cleared.  No more vehicles hit mines in that area.

Here is the link for more history on the 295 Combat Enigneer Batallion.

http://lct376.org/us295th/

And you complain about trash!

The young men of America, from coal mines, farms and city streets, went to foreign lands and saw unspeakable things nearly 76 years ago.  Many never mentioned them again when they came back home.

My father was clearing mines too, but from a minesweeper.

Thanks to my wife's research skills and patience, I've been lucky learn many interesting family stories, such as the one above and more.  They include Indian scouts, Revolutionary War battles, Civil War battles, and some very colorful stories that I might present some other time.

I tell you that to encourage you to research your family history.  While locked down in your house, besides developing comorbidities that put you at higher risk to COVID-19 as a result of the enforced sedentary lifestyle, you might as well do a little research.  You might also get some good clues for metal detecting sites.

---

Data can be useful.  I highly recommend keeping data on your ventures.  I was lucky to find some of my earliest records on my metal detecting finds.  Below is one page of that.

My Records of My First Metal Detecting Outings.

Having been a researcher before starting metal detecting and having a natural inclination to observe, collect data and analyze things, I started keeping records right off the bat.

I think this is my second page after I began metal detecting.  Here is what I found.

On 9/26, near the beginning of the entries I had $7.53 total face value of coin finds, and on the back of the page the last row shows that by 1/3 I had found a total of 2653 coins with a total face value of $197.48.  including 432 quarters, 622 dimes, 300 nickles and 1299 pennies.  Dollar coins and halves were not included in the total value (because of their relative rarity).  Foreign coins were recorded by not counted.  Jewelry was recorded too.  I see some Susan Anthony dollar finds, for example. The math seems to be off by less than a dollar.
As I said, I recorded the number of coins from each decade for each denomination.  Most of the hunts resulted in coins from the 60s, 70s, and 80s.  As I scan the records, I see that the first time I got many coins from the 20s, 30s and 40s was when I made a trip to Pennsylvania and West Virginia.

My record keeping evolved, and I learned things such as which sites produced the most coins and gold, the average time in the field it took to find a gold ring, how many coins I would find relative to each gold ring, the relative number of coins and rings found in the water as compared to land, which sites were most productive on average, etc.

Those records were from my time in South Florida.  Results on the Treasure Coast these days would be different.

For more on assessing the relative profitability of different detecting sites see my 1/11/19 post.

https://treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com/2019/01/11119-report-few-important-facts-about.html

---

It seems I was not clear, so I went back and modified the following.  I added underlining and additional comments.  The recently added comments are in square brackets.

General impressions are fine some of the time, but statistics can reveal a lot if the data collection techniques are valid and reliable.

I found an interesting article entitled, Let’s Visualize State-by-State Shutdown Effectiveness on COVID-19.  It is not in a peer reviewed journal, and I am not saying that the data or conclusions are valid, but the study does ask the type of question that needs to be asked, and attempts to address that question with statistics.

[So why do I present this study if the conclusions are not the point?  One reason: The study gives an example of the type of researchable question that could be addressed with real data, which is what I'd like to see done.]

Here is a short excerpt from the article to give you the idea.

I graphed the projected total deaths (past and future) using the IHME model versus how long it took a State to shut down from the time it started seeing people dying (when it reached 0.5 deaths per million).

[Notice that the study uses projected total deaths, not actual death statistics.   My point is that important questions can be addressed by using real data, although, as I've expressed before, I also have reservations about how cause of death is being coded.]





One would expect that the faster a State shuts down, the less deaths it would incur, but that’s surprisingly not what we find. There is virtually zero correlation between speed of shut down and expected death totals.

[Again, the conclusions were reached using projected death statistics, not actual real world data.  I'd like to see important research questions addressed using real data.]

Here is the link if you are interested.


Again, I have not really looked at this research thoroughly yet, and I am not saying that it is valid (in fact I can think of one confounding factor right off the top of my head) but the study does suggest that statistical techniques can be used to inform significant real world decisions.

In metal detecting or other more serious business, you'll do better if you collect valid data rather than go on general impressions.  If you are open minded, you might be surprised by what the numbers actually tell you.

---

Thursday evening there will be a short period of seven or eight foot surf and ENE winds.  That might be interesting.

The tides are small.

Happy hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.netr

Wednesday, April 8, 2020

4/8/20 Report - Hoard Found in Farm Field. Wile E. Coyote. Reader Comments. Prayer and Meditation. Statistics. Big Tides.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Roman Hoard Discovered by Farmer.
Source: See ScienceInPoland link below.

A farmer has discovered one of the largest hauls of Roman coins to ever be found in Poland.

Mariusz Dyl had been looking for abandoned antlers in a field near Cichobórz, south of Hrubieszów, Lublin, when he stumbled upon the 2,000-year-old coins scattered across 100 metres of the field.
After calling in experts, the 1,753 coins weighing 5.5kg and which were found in 2019, were taken to the Hrubieszów Museum where they have now been analysed and their authenticity confirmed.
Director of the Museum Bartłomiej Bartecki said: “This is undoubtedly the largest treasure from the Roman period in the Lublin region and one of the largest found in Poland so far...

According to Bartecki, all the coins, had been originally placed in a wooden box or leather pouch. While the remains of the container have not survived, it is known that it was decorated with silver-plated bronze rivets...

Notice the metal detectors being used in the photo below.

Source: ScienceInPoland link below.



Here is the link for the rest of the article.


---


Here is a humorous find.  It is small - only as wide as a US quarter.   I didn't realize what it was before I took a really good look at it.

Wile E. Coyote Charm Find?

Proves that the Knights Templar liked Road Runner cartoons.  I've seen too much baloney on TV.

---

JamminJack said, It seems the courts dismiss the law suit against Governor Desantis in regards to closed beaches. The news did not say anything about the law suit. I had seen where some resorts, homes, etc., wanted their beaches open. 


Maybe you can get some readers give more info. 


Anybody know anything about that?

Jack was also wondering about open and closed beaches and what was going on.

A few days ago I read that Fort Pierce or St. Lucie County was going to keep the boat ramps open if people acted responsibly.

Monday the pier and walkway along the Fort Pierce inlet was open even though the beach was closed.  Also along A1A people were parking and putting kayaks in as normal along one popular stretch where people often fish in the river.  A sheriff's car was parked just a short distance from there and appeared to have no problem with that.

If you think about it fishing and boating is a grocery store for some people, not to mention the relaxation and stress relief.

---

Got a message from Dan B. as follows.


Now is a time to come together when we cannot physically hug or touch or shake hands. In moments when our friends or family are hurting or in need. This becomes especially difficult.

Adapting and figuring out ways to do this can seem frustrating, but that is what comes before change.

Keeping ourselves at home and fighting for everyone we care for is crucial, yet we lose our social interactions and abilities to be free....and most of all breathe.

I truly hope that everyone can stay as positive as possible and remember we can help many from a distance.

I am just venting and hope this rubs off. Some people really need encouragement, hope, love, and especially treasure. 


Always appreciating treasure coast beach blog. 

Thanks for sharing Dan.

Although I hate to see government forcing churches to close for Easter or anytime, it won't stop prayer and meditation.  This Easter can be an especially powerful and meaningful time of spiritual growth for those who devote themselves to prayer and meditation during the crisis.  

People tend to think of prayer as picking up the phone and calling God.  I look at it the other way around.  Your phone is ringing.  It is time for you to answer.  



You might be interested in the book, Healing Words: The Power of Prayer and The Practice of Medicine, by Larry Dossey, MD.

He actually presents some randomized double-blind experiments as well as the more anecdotal.

---

You can find a lot of quotations about statistics.  Here are a couple I liked.

Torture statistics and they'll confess to anything.

98% of all statistics are made up.


Here are some misleading things we've been hearing from the experts lately.  If I acted like the press and didn't like the source, I'd call them lies, otherwise I might describe them as misleading errors.

1st.  They say that the numbers show that our mitigation efforts are working.  That is based upon a comparison of the numbers collected (which are very misleading) with the model predictions (which have no proven validity at all.  Dr, Birx said when this is all over we can gather the data and see if  how correct they were).  It appears that the predictions given by the particular model they most often cite could have been off by as much as a factor of thrity.  A wild guess, at best.  

2nd.  If what Dr. Brix says is right, the death rates we are seeing presented as a COVID-19 deaths include anybody that dies and is found to have COVID antibodies.  That is a little like saying that everybody that has flat feet and dies, died from flat feet.  At best those numbers are very misleading.  Unknown numbers of those same people would have likely died if they never got the virus.

---

Tomorrow I'll show you an interesting project you can do while waiting for an opportunity to go out metal detecting.  I just received it in an email.  Very nice.


We are getting some very big high tides now even thought the surf is down around 2 - 4 feet.

Have a blessed Holy Week.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Tuesday, March 31, 2020

3/31/20 Report - Some Very Old New World Spanish Reales. A What? Sunken Submarine Found. The Importance of Good Questions.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesereport.blogspot.com.

Early Mexico Four-Reale Displayed by McLarty Museum.
Submitted by JamminJack.

Not long ago I did a post on some of the oldest coins found on the Treasure Coast.  The one shown above is from the period of Juana and Carlos.  It is a Mexico minted four-reale.

Monedas Espanolas Desde Juana y Carlos a Isabel II: 1503 a 1868 by Calico, Calico and Trigo, 1985, shows a lot of early coins from both old world and new world mints.

See if you can tell the denomination of the one shown below..

Three Reale Shown in Calico et al Book.

Look between the two pillars above the banner and letters that run across the middle of the pillars.  Do you see three dots?  That is the denomination.  Yes, it is a three-reale!

Cobs, Pieces of Eight and Treasure Coins by Sewall Menzel shows an illustration of the designs on a a three-reale.  Here it is.

Three-reale as shown in Menzel book, Cobs, Pieces of Eight and Treasure Coins.

This next one isn't real clear, but I think you can see the two dots between the caps of the pillars.  It is a two-reale.
Two-Reale Shown in Calico et al Book.


Menzel also presents an illustration for that type of coin.

Carlos y Juana Three-Three Reale as Shown in Menzel Book.


Similarly, the one-reale has a single dot between the pillars.  I won't bother to show that one.

Both the one and two-reale, as well as the three reales shown above were minted in Mexico.

Unfortunately coinage of this period was not dated so it is nearly impossible to determine the date, or even the order of the coins.

The Calico book contains many examples and variations even a ten-reale from an old world mint.

---

The crew of the USS Stickleback didn’t expect things to end this way—rising from the depths on May 28, 1958, only to be broadsided by the hull of a friendly American destroyer, the USS Silverstein. The Stickleback sank to the bottom, an 11,000-foot journey to nowhere.

Now, 62 years since the sub disappeared from any radar screen—and became one of only four U.S. Navy submarines lost since the end of World War II—it’s been found again...


Thanks to Douglas, here is that link.

https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/stickleback-submarine-wreck-found

---

Unfortunately you can't separate Covid-19 from metal detecting since it has resulted in the beaches being closed.

Checking the statistics this morning I find that there have been 3,170 Covid-19 deaths in the United States so far.

After looking at a sea of additional statistics, one of the things that sticks out is this Fortune Magazine report from 2018 -

The Flu is Killing Up to 4,000 Americans a Week

So, if this headline is correct, and as far as I've been able to find, it is, then more people got killed by the flu in one week in 2018 than have been killed in the U. S. so far this year by the current Coronavirus.

Dr. Fauci, in the March 26 New England Journal of Medicine, gives a much less dramatic estimate of Covid-19 than he has been giving on TV lately, suggesting that it might not be much different than the normal flu.

CBS admitted the image they used to show an overcrowded U. S. hostpical was actually an Italian hospital.  I'm not saying that U. S. hospitals aren't crowded.  They usually are during flu season, but the media can be deceptive.

In another report I saw that the CDC said that up to 15 times more people die of the flu than is reported on death certificates.  Health statistics can be very unreliable.  You have to look at the details.

You always have to ask questions.  I once said that the question is more important than the answer, which seems like a stupid thing to say, but the question is important.  Asking the right questions is critically important, no matter whether you are talking about something like metal detecting or epidemiology.

I'm surprised by the high degree of compliance of the American people so far.  They've been conditioned by a deluge of threats ranging from the danger of riding a bicycle without a helmet and pads to the threat of monster plastic up to the apocalyptic threat of the climate killing us all.  Americans and citizens of the world have been drowned in a sea of experts and bad reporting and have surrendered their independence to those who are thought to know better.  An informed involved public is necessary.

I'm very suspicious of what is going on here.  It is time for a whole lot of good questions.  Not the type of questions that the media is asking, but penetrating questions that will put this whole thing in a meaningful context, resolve doubt and confusion and lead to good practical decisions.

Ask the hard questions.  Hold your officials accountable.  They aren't losing their jobs and businesses.  

---

The Treasure Coast surf will begin to build Saturday night.  We are supposed to have some good high surf on Sunday.

TreasureGuide@comcast.net