Friday, August 30, 2019

8/30/19 Report - 3 PM Update and 5 PM Update - Change to ECMWF Model.


3 PM Update.

The weather channel just announced a change to the ECMWF track.  The new change took the track of Dorian up along the East Coast without coming onshore in Central Florida.  I'd be happy with that. 

The National Hurricane Center map has not changed the cone yet. 

At the time of this update, the GFS track was heading up towards the Space Coast. 

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At 5 PM the weather channel once again showed the track of the European model that keeps Dorian just off-shore.  They did however mention that are still models that take it directly into the state.

Also the latest National Hurricane Center cone has now changed a bit.  It now has the center of Dorian making landfall right over the Fort Pierce Inlet and then turning north.

Center of National Hurricane Center Cone.
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
The past few National Hurricane Center updates seem to show a trend of the track moving more to the north and east.

Unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty on this one.  The spaghetti models are still all over the place.

Stay tuned.



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