Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label prediction. Show all posts

Friday, August 30, 2019

8/30/19 Report - Models Showing A More Southern Landfall For Dorian. Traffic.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.





Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.

Here is what the surf is supposed to be if the current predictions are correct.  This is the Fort Pierce map.  The one for Sebastian isn't very different.

So, what has changed since yesterday?  The models are now showing landfall between Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens.  The GFS model, which was previously showing landfall up by Melborne, is now very much agreeing with the ECMWF model and a landfall more to the south of us, and the National Hurricane Center is going with the more southerly landfall.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov
Above is the 8 AM cone.  That is close to us and there is plenty of time for change.  What has been a northwest track is expected to become more of an east to west track.  We are at a point where a slight change in the angle will make a big difference in the point of landfall.  If Dorian doesn't turn as sharply as expected, we could easily be looking at a landfall up towards Cape Canaveral again.

It seems to me that the ECMWF model has been one of the more accurate models, not only this time but also for past storms.

You can see that the higher surf now is expected for three days.  That is due to the expected path being more to the south and us getting more northeast winds, which are predicted for us for Sunday and Monday.  After that we'll be getting more south winds again, which can fill back in some of the erosion.

8 AM Friday Projected Path of the Center 
Source: National Hurricane Center.
Above you can see the predicted path of the center of Dorian.  That shows in coming inland just below Jupiter and making a turn to the north.  That is Grand Bahama to the right of the picture.


Below is the windy.com map from this moring.  The ECMWF model is used.

ECMWF Model for Monday 2 - 4 PM.
Source: windy.com.

Another change reflected in the morning projections is how slowly the storm is moving between the Grand Bahamas and landfall.

The angle Dorian takes out of the turn today will have a lot to do with where it makes landfall.

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You'll also notice from MagicSeaWeed that the tides are now pretty big too.

Chris N. wrote with an important reminder.  He said, Safety to the folks who weather the storm if they stay in the area, and I hope the flooding and damage will be minimized, which should be everyone's main concern. 

That is an important point.  Treasure isn't worth a human life.  Stay safe.

Just a few days ago I mentioned driving to Florida and arriving in Vero just after Hurricane David.  Those were days when I was young, and had no one and almost nothing to care about. Today I have other people, including  an elderly person, to take care of and watch out for.  That and having recently lost a family member, puts things in a different perspective.

Also having been through several hurricanes and experienced some pretty significant property damage, those things eventually get repaired.  It is the people that are important.

For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?


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I hope and suspect that tomorrow will bring more clarity on the path Dorian will take.  I'll be watching for any significant changes.

Before one hurricane I posted a link to a traffic site that shows where you might run into traffic problems.  I'm going to look for that link and post it again.

Here it is.   Go to https://www.google.com/maps, then type in traffic.  You'll see areas where traffic is slow and where there are closures etc.  Pretty handy.

Be safe.

I'll be back later today if there are any significant changes.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Sunday, March 24, 2019

3/24/19 Report - Six to Ten Foot Surf Predicted for Thursday. Indian Massacre Artifacts. Porcelain Find.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.

Last week didn't turn up much despite the erosion at various beaches.  Where there was more erosion, it didn't last long.  And at other beaches it just didn't get down to the older layers of sand.

Back in February, I said there would be old coins found, and there were.  There weren't many though, as far as I know.

My beach conditions rating was a little overly optimistic in February, as it was last week.  I thikn ther reason for that is that I didn't adequately take into account the large amount of renourishment sand that has been dumped on the beaches in recent years.  Despite the erosion, it didn't get down to the older layers of sand.

Despite the significant erosion at John Brooks both in February and last week, all we saw was the same old brown sand.  And there were almost no shells to be seen.

In February I think I gave a four rating for a very brief time.  That was too high.  I should have gone no higher than a three.  And last week, I flirted with going to a three rating.  In retrospect, that would have clearly been too high.

At least I think I learned something.  The accumulating renourishment sand on and off-shore needs to be taken more seriously, and I'll have to be a touch more conservative with my beach conditions ratings.

That said, it looks like we will have another chance at improved conditions in a few days.  Right now MagicSeaWeed is predicting a six to ten foot surf for Thursday.  Of course, things can change over the next few days.

I still remember those trips I made to the Treasure Coast when I was living in Broward County not having any idea what things might be like on the Treasure Coast.  I remember the wasted trips and then finally finding something.  I was starting to think it would never happen.

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The attack was the Wethersfield Indian Massacre of 1637. Artifacts that could provide new context for understanding the incident, along with a large cache of items spanning four centuries, have been uncovered behind the Webb Dean Stevens Museum in Wethersfield during an archaeological excavation over the past two years. Concluding in November, the excavation was required by the Connecticut State Historic Preservation Office as a prelude to the construction of a new visitor/education center getting underway this spring.


The nearly 19,000 items collected will add layers of knowledge about the lives of the colonists, says Sarah Sportman, who supervised the dig. Sportman is a senior archaeologist with the Public Archaeology Survey Team, a private, nonprofit research and public education organization based in Mansfield. “I think we’re really just starting to get a handle on this period archaeologically,” Sportman says. “The interesting thing about the project is that we’ve actually found archaeological material from the 1630s all the way up to the 20th century. Every period of occupation on this site really tells a rich story about this property and about the town of Wethersfield.”...


Here is the link for the rest of the article.
http://www.connecticutmag.com/the-connecticut-story/connecticut-s-jamestown-an-incident-in-wethersfield-nearly-years-ago/article_23470b4e-45a7-11e9-a081-e75a6b99c142.html

The funny thing to me is that all of that stuff was behind the museum, but they didn't dig it up until they had to before they did new construction.  If it was in your backyard, you probably would have dug it up long ago.

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Found Porcelain.
I found this piece of porcelain.  I think I found a similar piece of a cup  before.  Maybe I can find it.  I'm sure this one is porcelain, but the design looks a little odd to me for Kang Hsi.  Unfortunately there is no marking on the bottom.  That would help.  The design looks a little crude like it might be a European copy.  But I don't know.

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Don't forget to verify details on the Kellyco closeout sale before going if you were planning on going.  Someone told me it is over.

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It looks like a beautiful day to be out.  Keep watching the surf report.  Maybe we'll have some better hunting before long.



Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net


Friday, March 15, 2019

3/15/19 Report - How A Beautiful Pre-Civil War Artifact Was Recovered From the Depths. Bone Find? Interesting Surf Prediction for T. C.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

1852 Tea Pot Recovered From Steamer Wreck On Display.
Find and photo by Sebastian Steve


I just received the following in an email from Sebastian Steve.

IMMIGRANT KETTLE/TEA POT 1852  Recovered by Sebastian Steve.

I saw your 'TEAPOT' photo, so I thought I might share my recovery (from about 30 years ago) of a teapot or kettle and the story that it carries on...hopefully forever...however long that is.

I was salvaging a passenger steamer up in Lake Erie, lost in 1852.  I went down on my morning dive to 160 feet, and worked along the port gunnel.  Sure enough jammed in the passageway on the main deck was an "immigrant crate" as I had named them.  This one the top was missing, evidently blown off from the air pressure trapped inside.  They really were not like an immigrant trunk with a big lid that opens.  Instead these were often just heavily built hardwood boxes nailed shut for the period of the voyage.  

Theft was rampant back in these days, and the only way to keep your goods safe, was to guard them day and night.  Literally sleep with your head resting against your crate.  Nailing your "Crate" shut certainly deterred theft!  The wealthy in first class would consign their luggage and valuables to the ship's purser, who kept all their belongings locked up tight in the purser's cabin for safe keeping. 

And as I began to feel around inside this immigrant crate, I could feel many objects to my delight still remained. Certainly all the contents could have been blown out from the air pressure.  This of course was all by feel, as the second my hand touched the first artifact, the powder silt was up, up, and away!  Totally bringing the visibility of the dive down to near zero at this location.  

But I was used to working in low visibility, or even just by feel, so I continued to investigate the contents of this crate.  A beautiful oval cheese box came out.  Totally hand made and carved with decorations in the wood.  These were often given as wedding gifts to a new young couple.  The crate had preserved the thin wood perfectly, and all the inscriptions and patterns could be seen.  A beautiful piece indeed.

Then I felt something harder near the bottom of the crate.  Harder, yet round with a protrusion.  I pulled this artifact up and out into the clearer water.  And I saw for the first time, that I had a beautiful tea pot or kettle as they are often known by.  Not a bit of damage, no dents, amazing how it survived a collision and foundering into 160 feet of water with no damage!  But wait... the lid was missing.  I think I groaned so hard, I almost spit out my regulator.  My chances of finding that lid was next to zero.  It must have blown out the top of the crate when the lid blew off.  What a royal shame... Still a pretty piece, and I could see some kind of inscription on the handle.  

And so I surfaced after my 11 minutes of decompression.  My total dive was about 50 minutes, but only 20 minutes of that was actually on the wreck.  In the afternoon dive, (after sitting out for 4 hours for residual nitrogen to escape my blood stream) my next dive would have the same profile for decompression, but only 15 minutes of time on the wreck.  So yes...a total working day of only 35 minutes....and a full hour boat ride each way to the wreck.  There was no time for sightseeing, not with the business I was in of making my living from the deep.

It was a beautiful day...and after a nice rest in the warm sun, a sandwich and soft drink, it was time to suit up again.  Down I slid on the descent line, deeper and deeper, and right over I swam to my mystery chest I had just located that very morning.  And I against all odds, felt around in the bottom of the crate for the lid.  I knew exactly what it would feel like, and its size.  My minds eye would identify this lid quite easily "If" it were only still there in the crate.  Blown out...in reality it could be anywhere.  Depending on when the air pressure had her way with the crate.  The lid could be five feet from the crate, or 50 feet away under three feet of silt.  It had to be found in the crate or kiss it goodbye...forever.  

I feel like I almost "willed" this lid into my hand.  Because at about ten minutes into the dive I had her in my hand !!!  I knew it right away, but I still backed up and thrust my arm up and above the silt cloud into clear enough water to see what I had.  And OH-Boy...was I a happy diver.  Far too fine a piece of history to not be complete.  And now she was complete in all her glory.

What makes this kettle so special?  If you study the inscription on the handle... it is "MHD" 1852.  And there is also a maker's mark from when the kettle was made.  This is only speculation...but I would state my reputation on this...Some gifted man for beautiful scroll work, purchased this kettle in N.Y.City after crossing the ocean from the Fatherland.  To commemorate his arrival in the United States, he scribed into the handle his initials, and the date.  Making this a very important --immigrant artifact--- of 1852.  I believe he had the calm and time to do the carving as he went peacefully down the Erie Canal from the Hudson River to Buffalo, N.Y. on a horse drawn canal boat. 



Inscribed Tea Pot Handle.
Photo by Sebastian Steve (clipped by TG)

And so after 30 years it was time....time for a new home that could guarantee its continuity and safety.  I carefully selected a couple who run a maritime museum out of their home in Michigan.  It's first rate in all respects.  And just as important, this Ken has a deep and loving respect for the history of The Great Lakes.  I wish him well with this gorgeous piece of immigrant history.  A piece this fine might bring in the neighborhood of $5,000.


All the Best,
Sebastian Steve 


Very meaningful and beautiful find!  Thanks for sharing Steve.

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John L. sent me the following email and photos.


Hello again.
I was wondering if you and/or your readers could tell me anything about this find.
I know very little about fossils, but this sure seems to be one resembling a tooth.
Found it in a line of shells at a local, municipal, tourist beach.
Thank you again for keeping up your terrific blog! 

























I don't think this is a tooth, but if you can provide more specific information on the item, please email me.


Find and photos by John L.








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Now this is starting to look like it could get interesting.

Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.
Three days in a row of 4 - 6 foot surf is predicted for the Treasure Coast.  Of course, it could change for the worse yet.
Keep watching,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Monday, February 26, 2018

2/26/18 Report - Mystery Button. Old Metal Detecting Records and Finds. Big Surf Predicted for Next Week.


Written by the TreasueGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Dug Unknown Button for ID.
Here is a button that I haven't researched.  I just found it in a jug of old crusty pennies.  Any ideas appreciated.  Below is the back of the same button.  Unfortunately it is obscured by crust and needs cleaned.

Button Back.
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I always tell people to keep records of their metal detecting finds.  I often regret not having kept more detailed records and have never felt like I kept too much.

My wife was cleaning out a closet and found some old records.  They seem to cover part of 1989.  I was especially glad to see that on a few occasions I put down the year in addition to the day and month, which I always recorded.  When making the records I guess I didn't think it was necessary to record the year, but a few decades later it really helps.  I have some old records that I have to guess the year and don't know if my guess is right or not.

Metal Detecting Records From 1989 Discovered.

I've talked about some of my earliest records from the first year or two when I started metal detecting.  Those records did not have a year and I can only guess now when that was.  At that time I kept track of the coins I found.  The records that were found today only record gold and silver finds.  I quit keeping track of coins when I was targeting jewelry.

Beside the date, detector used, short description of finds, I also included the beach and specific areas of the beach, such as "just north of rocks" or "on far side of sand bar."

Back then my records were useful for keeping track of hot spots.  Now when I read those old records they help me remember the finds and experiences.

There were some pretty good days.  On the page I am looking at, I see that on 9/15/89 I found an 18K garnet ring, 14K blue sapphire ring, 14K man's gold nugget ring, one small hollow 18K medallion with small ruby.  I do not remember that day.

On 7/4 there was a small diamond man's ring, a 10K high school class ring, a 14K lady's diamond baguette and sapphire ring, 14K nugget ring with three small diamonds  and 18K medallion.  I do remember that day.  I remember telling the guy that made my detector about it.  That is probably why I remember it.

5/18 I definitely remember even though I found only one ring that day.  It was a nice national championship ring.

Not only did the records tell me where a lot was found, they also told me where the better stuff was found.

I think if you keep good records, some day you'll be glad you did.

By the way, in the back of the closet my wife found a jug full of crusty old pennies.  The button was in with the pennies.  Most of the pennies are totally encrusted or destroyed.  I guess that is why I didn't spend them.

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The weather has been the same for a few weeks.  It looks like there could be a change in beach conditions.

Source: MagicSeaweed.com.
That is a big bump predicted for next Monday.

Feel

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net



Thursday, December 31, 2015

12/31/15 Report - Happy New Year. All-Time Most Read Posts. Higher Surf Predicted. A Few Finds.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


1909 New Years Greeting Card.


To the left of this post you'll see a list of the top ten all-time posts of this blog.  One 2015 post made the list.

The list is biased towards older posts because they continue to accumulate.  It isn't easy or newer posts to make the list.

Hopefully we'll get a good start on the new year.  A 5 - 8 foot surf is now predicted for January 5. As you know the predictions aren't always correct, but if we do get something like what is predicted, there is a good chance for beach conditions to improve.  There will be a north wind or a few days too.

Some of the beaches have lost a good bit of renourishment sand, so we have a decent chance if we get some good new action.

I haven't been much interested in hunting modern jewelry lately.  I did a little though just for the heck of it and came up with a couple gold finds.  Here is one.

14K Peridot Ring Find.
Here are a few finds that although they have no value, I found a little interesting.

Old Glass
I would say this glass is at least early 20th century.  Older bottle glass is thicker than the glass in modern bottles, might have bubbles and is more variable in thickness.  Modern glass is very thin and of a uniform thickness.

White Pumice - I think.

I've been seeing white pumice on some Treasure Coast beaches lately.  Most of the pumice that I've seen in the past was dark grey.  I think that is what it is.  Pumice was used to scrub centuries ago and I suppose still is.

I'm not going to post a lot today.  Mainly wanted to say Happy New Year that a higher surf is predicted for next week.  That is something to watch.

Happy New Year,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

12/2/15 Report - Comparing Cuts On The Front And Back Of The Beach. Old Bronze Ordnance. Weekend Surf Predicted To Be Up.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Crude Illustration of Beach Profile.
There is always something new to learn.  I've been making some new and possibly important observations over the past couple of weeks.

We had some improved beach detecting conditions in both October and November, and I know of cobs that were found both times.

I saw a layer of older sand below the renourishment sand on one beach.  It was a different color and was buried less than a foot under the renourishment sand at one location.  That is promising.  The old sand is not too deep at some locations that were previously deeply buried.

In October one cut that produced some shipwreck items was  on the front of the beach far from the dunes.

If I had a choice, I'd prefer a cut to be low and near the water rather than high and back towards the dunes.

I made the above illustration to show to cuts - one out front and the other higher and behind.

I couldn't possibly discuss all of the different scenarios and factors, but will mention a few.

When you compare cut one and two in the above illustration,  I think you can see how cut 2 might have several things going for it.

First, being low and near the water, coins (represented by the two black dots) would much more easily be washed up and into the cut.  Cut two will have a lot more water hitting it longer.  The sheer amount of water hitting that cut would be much greater than the amount that would hit cut one.

The water could be hitting cut two through much of the tidal cycle.  The coins would not have far to go.

I should have drawn a slope in front of cut 1.

So far I've only talked about when coins are being washed up.  Coins are sometimes uncovered by erosion.  That is a different situation and I won't get into that now.

For now, I just want you to see how much greater water force would act on the cut 1 as compared to cut 2, and how closer the cut is to any coins that would wash up onto the beach.  Again, the situation would be entirely different if the coins were washing out of the dunes or if the coins previously washed up and only needed to be uncovered.

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I was told the photos weren't showing up for the previous two posts.  I believe I fixed that problem.


I hope so.  Let me know if you can't see them yet.

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I posted a new poll that will help us get a idea of how much was found during the most recent period of improved conditions.  It will also help me compare Oct. and Nov.

Please respond to the poll if you hunted the Treasure Coast beaches anytime during the last two weeks of November.


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Here is a cool document - The Development and Design of Bronze Ordnance, Sixteenth through Nineteenth Centuries.


http://www.staugustinelighthouse.org/LAMP/Conservation/Meide2002_Bronze.pdf


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The surf tomorrow on the Treasure Coast will be small (1 - 2 feet).  This weekend, however, expect something more like 5 - 9 feet.  That is promising, especially considering any remaining remnants of recent improved periods.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Monday, August 1, 2011

8/1/11 Report - Big Seas Predicted



Possible Tracks of Latest Tropical Storm Emily


This wave has not been named yet, but if it does develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Emily. It is now east of Martinique.


Yesterday NOAA said it had a 100% chance of developing into a cyclone, but today only 90%. When they sent out the hurricane tracker plane it wasn't as developed as previously thought. It will probably still develop.

I heard that if it remains weak, it will more likely take a more southerly track and possibly go into the Gulf, but if it strengthens considerably, more likely out into the Atlantic.

This one bears watching. There is still a lot of uncertainty about what it might do.

Here is the link where I got the projected paths.

http://www.mogilo.com/pages/tropical-storm-emily-2011-track


The blog survey has changed a bit since the first few days. Generally speaking, the bigger the sample, the more reliable the results.



Yesterday I talked a little about the Canadian coins that are often found on Florida beaches where many Canadians winter.

Here is a link to a web site that discusses some of the most valuable Canadian coins.

http://www.2-clicks-coins.com/article/rare-canadian-coins.html


I ran across a great web site about the historic shipwrecks around England. It provides a map with wreck locations as well as information about each of the wrecks.

Here is the link.

http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/discover/maritime/map/

The web site also shows two wrecks that are visible at low tide and accessible to non-divers.


An Encrusted Penny and Nickel.

I couldn't tell what these were until they were cleaned. Any coins that have apparently been on the beach for a while can be signal coins that tell you that older items are there and are either washing up or out.


Treasure Coast Beach Forecast and Conditions.


The wind is now out of the south and the seas still calm. However - and here is the really big news - big seas are predicted for this weekend. Saturday it is supposed to get up to about six or seven feet and then eight feet Sunday. That would be from Emily.

That is the most that we have had for quite a while. I can't really remember the last time we had eight foot seas.

It usually takes about eight foot seas to really improve conditions. It depends partly upon the angle of the waves though. If the waves hit directly from the east it usually doesn't do much. The water just washes up onto the beach and then back down. That is what happened during hurricane Andrew. There was very little, and almost no erosion to the South Florida beaches from Hurricane Andrew even though the water got very high.

So if we get eight foot seas coming from the north/northeast, conditions could improve dramatically. We'll just have to wait a little longer. But keep a watch on this one.

Get your equipment in good order This could be what we've been waiting for.


Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net