Wednesday, September 6, 2017

9/6/17 Report - Part 2 - Three Hurricanes. Irma Developments. 18 Foot Predicted Surf.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Three Hurricanes Now All At Once
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
Katia is probably going south and into Mexico.  Jose will probably turn north before he gets to Florida.  And Irma is currently heading our way, according to the NHC predictions.

If you check the Euro and GFS models, they are very similar right now, both making landfall down around Miami and then heading up towards the Treasure Coast very close to Port St. Lucie.  Of course there is still time for things to change and there is a large cone of uncertainty that could include Irma going more east of us, only making landfall north of Florida.  Still too soon to tell for sure.

The lastest NHC Irma prediction as of 5:30 PM.
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
That is a pretty sharp turn north and away from Cuba.  It could still turn sooner or later.

Below is the surf prediction for the Fort Pierce area.  At this time the predicted Sebastian surf is supposed to be about the same but maybe a foot or two less at the peak.

Source: MagicSeaWeed.com

As you can see the surf is supposed to begin increasing Saturday and peaking late Sunday.

That's all for now.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net


Tuesday, September 5, 2017

9/6/17 Report - BIG Surf Predicted for Treasure Coast. Watching for Irma. Updated After 8 and 11 AM advisories.


Writtten by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.
Predicted Surf for Fort Pierce Area by MagicSeaWeed.com.


It seems to me that the National Hurricane Center has done a good job of predicting the path of hurricanes in recent years.  Still, last year we expected Matthew to hit the Treasure Coast and was surprised that it hit farther north.

We are still days away from the center of Irma and can't tell where it is going to turn.  The National Hurricane Center reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track, though, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. That is a big range.  Some models still have the track going east of us, others to the west of Florida, and some right up the middle of the state.  As a result we know very little at this point other than the fact that there is a still lot of uncertainty concerning where Irma will go.  

From the MagicSeaWeed web site it looks like we will have a big surf.  Above you can see the predicted surf for the Fort Pierce area.  It is big.  Very big.

On Sunday, when the surf is predicted to be near peak, it is also predicted to be from the north.  The beach will be very dangerous.  The beaches might get more eroded than during Francis and Jeane. Still, don't go out there until it is safe. They will probably close the bridges and beaches.  Wait until it is safe.  Think of life and safety first.  Help your neighbor.

In case you haven't found out for yourself yet, a lot of stores are already out of batteries and water.

I've been waiting for some clarity on the likely track of Irma, but haven't got it yet.  It seems to depend a lot upon when it will turn north.  As I said, some models have it going off the east coast, models have it going off the west coast and some models have it going right up through the state.


Position of Irma on Sunday at 5 PM if the GFS model is correct.
Source: Ventusky.com

Position of Irma on Monday at 2 PM if the ECMWF model is correct.
Source: Windy.com.
As you can see from the two images above, different models predict different paths.  The GFS model used for the first image is commonly used and is referred to as the American model.  It shows the hurricane heading north, right off of the Treasure Coast.  It wouldn't take much change for it to be right over the Treasure Coast.

Perhaps the most highly regarded model seems to be the European model.  That is shown in the second image, which shows Irma over by Tampa on Monday.

These two models are now a little closer than they have been at other times in the past couple of days, Unfortunately, both of them are very close to us.  

One model has the hurricane moving more quickly than the other.  GFS has it near us on Sunday, while the ECMWF shows the center nearest to us several hours later.

The models are still wiggling around quite a bit.  The next time I look, the results might be very different.  And there are other models showing different tracks.  It is really hard to tell at this point where it might go.



Source: nhc.noaa.gov
This is the National Hurricane Center track as shown after the Sept. 5, 11 PM advisory.  It looks closer to the European model.  

After the 5 AM advisory, they changed the nhc track to go up the middle of the state.  It looks like they are splitting the difference between the European and American models.



New Irma NHC Track After 5 AM Advisory.

After the 8 AM Update, I looked at the GFS and European model and both are now to the east of the Treasure Coast, but the European model is a little closer to the coast than the GFS.  After the 8 AM update, those two models seem to be converging.



Source: wunderground.com
The GFS model is shown above in red.  I snipped this at about 8:30 AM.  The European model isn't one of the ones shown here, but you can see the UKMET model runs right along the coast.   The general trend now seems to be more to the east.  I have no problem with that.
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11 AM NHC Advisory

The Irma track posted on the NHC web site after the 11 AM advisory is very much like the UKMET model that that you can see in the picture  .  NHC now shows a track moving along the east coast of Florida and very much over the Treasure Coast (below).

Source: nhc.noaa.gov
The new NHC track is closer to the European and GFS models that I showed earlier too.

I hope the eastward trend continues.  I don't want to see the eye-wall going right over us.


Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

9/5/17 Report - Still Watching Irma Predictions. Error Coin Web Sites.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.


Here are the MagicSeaWeed surf predictions for Sebastian (above) and Fort Pierce (below).

Both show a pretty big surf for this coming Sunday.  It starts to increase late Friday or early Saturday. 

The predicted peak surf for both locations at this time is above 12 feet.

 Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.



Irma Tracks Shown on WunderGround.com After 2 AM Update.

It seems the predicted paths are trending towards the Florida west coast.  See the tracks as shown on WunderGround.com (above).


Position of Irma as Shown on Windyty.com for 1 PM Monday.
Above is the position of Irma as predicted by running Windyty.com after Irma has passed us.  It ran up along the west coast of Florida.

Below is what you see if you ran the Ventusky web site Monday morning before the 5AM update.

Position of Irma as Predicted by the Ventusky Web Site.

Both the Ventusky and Windyty web sites now show Irma passing to the west of the Treasure Coast.

It is too early to make much out of these predictions.  There is still a lot of time left for changes.

This seems very reminiscent of Matthew, which we watched last year.

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 For a more pleasant diversion, here are a couple web sites about error coins.

MintErrorNews.com shows an issue of the online magazine.  The sample issue is no. 42.  You can easily find the other issues.

Here is the link.

http://minterrornews.com/issue42.pdf

And below is the link for the error coin section of JimsCoins.com.

http://www.jimscoins.com/error_coin_examples.php

It seems like a long time ago, but a few days ago I posted a picture of what I thought might be a die cap strike nickel.  I haven't seen anything to change my opinion on that but would like to hear from anyone who might have an opinion on that conclusion.

I'll probably update this post some time later today.

Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Monday, September 4, 2017

9/4/2017 Report - Watching Hurricane Irma. Happy Labor Day. Updated 5 PM.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Speghetti Model Tracks for Irma After the 11:00 AM Labor Day Update.
Source: Weather Underground web site.
Irma is still about a week away.  It is too early to tell where she'll go.

As you can see from the above, different models are showing very different tracks.  They have it anywhere from Virginia to the Gulf and Panhandle of Florida.

Overall, the track has been moving more to the west.  The Ventusky and Windyty web sites vary. One still has Irma passing to the east of the Florida Coast and passing very close to the Treasure Coast, while the other has it going in around Naples, like the white line shown above, and then proceeding up along the west coast of Florida.  It is just too early to tell when it is going to turn north.  On average, over the last day or two the projections have been moving more to the west.  

That is about all I have to say about it for now.  I'll update this post as more information comes in.

That is all for now.

Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

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MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE.


While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it looks more and more like the predictions are starting to settle more on the Florida East Coast.  The Weather Underground web site showed the predicted tracks based upon six different models.  One goes way east of us, three very near us, and two going over Cuba.

Three of Seix Models Showing a Track Over or Very Near the Treasure Coast.
Source: wunderground.com
Five of those six models were initialized at 2 PM, and the other one was initialized at 8 AM Monday.

The 5 PM nhc.noaa.gov cone of uncertainty is just a touch more to the north than the 2 PM update showed.

The following is the same map I showed at the top of the page, but it is the 5 PM update.


Source: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma

Notice how there is now one group going right over the Treasure Coast and another group going over Cuba.

There is still a lot of time for things to change, but there seems to be a definite trend with more tracks going over or near the Florida East Coast.

I forgot to mention that MagicSeaWeed is predicted something like a ten to twelve foot surf for Sunday, which is the peak.

Keep watching.
TreasureGuide @comcast.net



Sunday, September 3, 2017

9/3/17 Report - Following Hurricane Irma. Comparative Corrosion of Silver Dimes. Metal Detector Repair Issues. A Few Items That Might Come In Handy When Metal Detecting


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.
The main thing I'm paying attention to is Irma.  As you can see from the above surf predictions, a 14 to 22 foot surf is expected for next Sunday.  That is certainly the biggest surf we've seen on the Treasure Coast for quite some time.

I've been watching the National Hurricane Center web site as well as the Ventusky and Windyty.com weather sites.  From what I'm seeing on all of them, the projected path of Irma is creeping a little closer to the Florida Coast and the Treasure Coast.  A day or two ago, it looked like it was going just a little more to the east of the Bahamas.  Now it is over some of the Bahama islands.  But that is only an early look, and the cone of uncertainty is wide.  

There is another system following right behind Irma and one forming down in the Gulf of Mexico.  I'm hoping the one in the Gulf, which does look like it will head towards Texas, fizzles out without dumping any more rain on them.

We still have nearly a week to watch how Irma is going to go.  I'd really like to see it turn more to the north.

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Badly Corroded Roosevelt and Mercury Beach Dimes

Although both are badly corroded silver dimes, the Roosevelt dime, the youngest of the two, is the most corroded.

This is an illustration of how silver corrodes on a beach over time and the imperfect correlation of age and corrosion.  The specific circumstances have a lot to do with the amount of corrosion.

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GoldNugget of North Carolina sent his Exclibur 200 to KellyCo Detectors for repairs months ago. He said it has been there since June 15 of 2017.  After much frustration and delay, he contacted Minelab U S A, and they said they will contact Kellyco next week to see what the problem is.  That kind of delay is intolerable.  From my recent poll, I know that a large number of my readers use Minelab detectors. You don't want to be waiting for months to get your metal detector repaired.  I hope GoldNugget keeps me informed of any developments so I can let you know what is happening.

I had a similar problem with Kellyco a few years ago. It concerned a Minelab detector too.  As I recall it was a new detector.  After failing to get any kind of satisfactory response to my inquiries, I drove up to Orlando and got a replacement detector right away.  That should not have been necessary.

While I'm on the subject of metal detector repairs, my worst experience was with Tesoro.  I owned two Tesoro detectors.  My problem with Tesoro is that they advertise a lifetime warranty, yet when each of my two older detectors needed repairs, they wouldn't honor the warranty because they claimed the detectors were obsolete.  People with newer Tesoro detectors reportedly receive good service, but a lifetime warranty should be a lifetime warranty, not an advertising gimmick.

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I don't like to take unnecessary equipment when I detect. I like to travel light, so sometimes I don't have everything I need.  Sometimes you can return later with the right equipment, but that doesn't always work.  It surprises me how long some targets remain in place on heavily hunted beaches.

Here are a few extra things that can come in handy at the beach. I won't mention such obvious things as batteries or a spare detector.

I seldom take a shovel, but sometimes a shovel is needed for those deep difficult to dig targets. It is surprising how long deep targets will often stay on a beach. Some remain in place for years. I know of some right now that were just beyond what I'm typically willing to dig that have been in place for months. Eventually I'll go equipped for digging deeper targets and remove them.  I'll do that sort of thing when there aren't many people around. I removed one of those big deep targets on my last outing. It had been there for at least two months.

Binoculars can also be very helpful, although I usually don't take them. They can save a lot of walking. Binoculars will give you a good look at a distant part of the beach without having to walk there.

A back-pack or large heavy duty bag can come in handy too. Bigger finds won't fit in your pocket. There have been times when I found plastic bags on a beach to carry away unexpected finds like antique bottles or larger fossils. Plastic bags don't work well for heavy or sharp objects and a plastic bag will tear.  A heavy duty large canvas bag can be very handy.

There are also times when a screen or sifter will come in handy. Lets say you run into a broken necklace of gold beads. It can be quicker and easier to screen them than find them individually. I've wasted a lot of time trying to find a single small gold bead even after I threw it on my coil with a handful sand.

A good magnet can come in handy when you are working a beach that has a lot of iron.  A magnet on short pole or mounted in your scoop will pick up pieces of iron very quickly.

Those are a few things that come to mind.  For land hunting, there is another list of items that I might talk about some other time.

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This was declared to be a National Day of Prayer to pray for those affected by Harvey.

Wasn't it nice to see people helping people with very little looting.

Happy hunting,
Treasureguide@comcast.net


Saturday, September 2, 2017

9/2/17 Report - Ancient Gold Necklace Found. Reading for Clues. Looking At Irma and Big Surf Predictions.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Ancient Gold Necklace Found
Source: The Sofia Globe ( link below )

It is easy to miss good clues. You can miss them in the field, and you can miss them when you are reading.

I often post links to articles that contain good clues. They tell you something more than somebody  found some object.

This article about the ancient gold necklace provides some clues.  Here is a little of the text.

The gold necklace was made in one of the elite ateliers in ancient Rome, according to a report by Bulgarian National Television. Researchers suggest that the necklace was lost in the panic when the violent earthquake destroyed the city.

A lot of valuables are lost during disasters. That is obvious enough. 
The article also mentions panic. Behavior is important. You can evaluate beaches by the behaviior of the people who visit the beach. Lively crowds tend to lose a lot more than sedentary older crowds. Glitzy party beaches where young wealthy drunk patrons carelessly cavort are good beaches for finding good things. I've mentioned some of the sociological factors before, including some that I won't repeat now.
It doesn't take an earthquake. Even a sudden downpour will make people lose things as they hurry to gather their belongings. A beach towel can be grabbed and everything on it goes flying.

I didn't want to get into all of that except to point out how articles like this one can provide some good clues and reminders.

Here is the link for he rest of the article.

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I'm watching Irma very closely.  The MagicSeaWeed web site predicts up to a ten foot surf for the Treasure Coast around the eight or ninth of the month.


Predicted Surf for the Fort Pierce Area
Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.
I looked at two different web sites, both of which are listed in my Wind, Surf, Waves links.  One of those sites shows Irma passing to the East of us and providing north winds on the eighth of September, and the other has Irma a little farther to the east, but getting closest to us on the tenth.


Predicted September 8.
Souirce: Ventusky.com.

Predicted September 10.
Source: Windyty.com.
The Ventusky prediction has Irma moving faster and arriving sooner, but staying a bit farther east.

The Windyty prediction has Irma arriving a couple days later, but the center is closer to Florida.

Of course there is a lot of uncertainty yet and we don't really know what will happen yet.

I'm hoping that we just get the higher surf without all the wind.

Keep watching.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Friday, September 1, 2017

9/1/17 Report - Wind and Weather Prediction Web Site. Stone Artifact Finds. Yellow Brick House. Category 3 Hurricane Irma.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Clipping From Really Useful Web Site Showing Wind Direction and Other Data.
See Ventusky link below.
Here is a really good and useful web site.  It shows wind direction and other useful data.  You can change the time and date and see the predicted wind for tomorrow or whatever time you choose.

Wind direction is very important in predicting erosion.  That is one thing I am very interested in if I want to detect for old coins or other items.

You might want to check out this site.  I will be adding it to the blog section on wind and surf.

Here is the link.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=25.1;-80.7;4&l=rain-3h

Thanks to Brian B. for alerting me to this site.

I also recently added the USGS web site that shows coastal areas expected to experience events such as overwash and inundation.  You'll currently find it near the bottom of my reference list on the first page of the blog.

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Sorry for the confusion.  A few times yesterday I wrote "quarter" when I meant nickel.  The photos I showed yesterday are of nickels, except for the picture of the capped die strike example from Jim's coin web site.

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I received the following email message and find photo from Ed B.

Hello my unmet friend! It's been a while, but I have remained a daily reader. The last few years have been quite a personal journey for me and I have landed in north-east Alabama. I know this isn't Heaven but it sure must be close. Anyway, I finally have some finds to share with you. I have been hiking and creek walking and although no metal detector was involved, I still found a bit of treasure. 

The smallest is a beveled scraper, mid-sized is a tomahawk head. Those two tan lines are sap I think. The third one is I believe to be a grinding stone and it seems to have been made for a left handed person. It fits the left hand perfectly and is ground down on the right end from use. I am not sure of the age but whoever made them has my respect. They are well designed and fabricated. Even the scraper has finger stops on the back and a depression for the thumb. If you have any insights, I'm all ears.

Thanks again for all your hard work. It really is appreciated...



Finds and photo by Ed B.

Ed's email provides a great opportunity for me to remind you to keep your eyes open while detecting. There are a lot of non-metallic finds you can make by sight. Arrow heads and other items are sometimes found on the Treasure Coast beaches, especially after a high surf.


I personally love checking along creeks and rivers when I am up north. Erosion is erosion not matter where it occurs, and it is always a good idea to check out erosion where ever you find it.

Thanks much for sharing Ed.

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The Yellow Brick House.


Up north in a small rural village consisting of a school and an old store surrounded by a few houses where a small creek joins a larger one and the side roads join the main road, there was a low green space next to the creek where arrow heads are commonly found when the garden is plowed and where Native Americans once hunted deer and other small game while the children played. 

 After the big war, young men came home.  One green corner lot, like several other lots scattered over the hills and through the valleys, became a cheerful yard surrounding a brand new yellow brick house.  

My earliest friend, who was born a day after me in the same hospital in town, moved from a little old white house on the side of a hill to a new yellow brick house built by her dad near the center of the village built on the nice green lot.  I remember my friend and I sitting on the floor of that new house and watching the Mickey Mouse Club on TV.  We were both so young.

My friend and I went through the same schools.  Then we went to the same college.  We each got married, went our ways and time passed. She and her husband are both gone now, but I occasionally think of that village where we were young.

Last night I dreamed of a couple young kids running and playing in the fresh green yard surrounding the yellow brick house on the other side of the creek from the school.  I'm sure my dream was more than a dream and children actually run and play in that yard today, not having any thought or care about what happened before or what will come.  But time will pass and someday maybe they'll think back to when they were young and ran and played in the green yard around the yellow brick house.
 
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You might think that wasn't about treasure hunting, but it is.

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Hurricane Irma
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
Harvey is now in Tennessee.  The one to watch now is Hurricane Irma - a cat 3 hurricane. That one formed very early and is already a category 3.  It seems to be turning northeast.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net