Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts

Thursday, April 2, 2020

4/2/20 Report - Juana and Carlos Pillars and Waves Find. Tree of Life. Bottle Stopper. Assumptions and Uncertainty.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Cleaned Early Pillars and Waves Cob Found by Terry S.
Photo by Terry S.
You might remember this find.  We saw it before it was cleaned.

Found by Terry S., we wondered if it might be the earliest coin found on the Treasure Coast, and concluded that if not, it was certainly among the earliest.  These coins were not dated and even with the assayer mark it is difficult to put a specific date on them.

Terry had West Bay Trading Company clean it for him.  We can now see good detail.  To the left of the shield is the M for the Mexico mint, and to the right of the shield is the assayer mark, "G."

Here is the other side of the same coin.

Mexico Two-Real After Cleaning
Find and photo by Terry S.
Recently I showed illustrations of other coins from the reign of Juana and Carlos.

On this side of Terry's cob, you can see the two dots between the pillars, indicating that it is a two-reale.  This coin looks most similar to type 69 (p. 27) in the Calico, Calico, and Trigo book that I often cite.  That book presents 11 varieties (or types) of Juana and Carlos Mexico two-reales, including those marked with assayer's marks of R, G, F, P, A, S, L and O.

Experts agree with what I see in the Calico book and date it to around 1940 - 1948.

Great detail on a very early coin and a great find by Terry S.

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Source: LiveScience.com.  See link below.

A towering ponderosa pine discovered in the center of Chaco Canyon in New Mexico, known as the "Plaza Tree," was once thought to symbolize life and the center of the world for an ancient pueblo town. But new research suggests it may have been just a giant log no one bothered to move for 800 years, and maybe didn't hold significant meaning...

For over a hundred years, people assumed the tree had meaning; it was regarded as a "tree of life" according to one researcher, or a "world tree." The solitary tree was once thought to represent the living "center of the world" for the people of Pueblo Bonito, the largest of Chaco Canyon's "great houses," which was occupied between A.D. 850 and 1150. Some speculations placed the tree at the center of a religious cult, and an illustration of a growing "Plaza Tree of Pueblo Bonito" appears in a brochure from the National Park Service...

Eventually fantasy gives way to good sense.

"I actually have no idea whether it did, does, or ever had religious significance," Guiterman told Live Science in an email. "I don't know what it was used for, or why it was located in the plaza where it was found."...


That is refreshing.
Here is the link for more about that story.
https://www.livescience.com/chaco-canyon-famous-tree-of-life-mystery.html


I've mentioned before that when they can't identify the use of an object, archaeologists seem to interpret the object as having some religious significance or being a toy.   Its fun to think about things like that, but when you don't know, just say so, or at least make it clear that you are just guessing.

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I took a little walk the other day.  Didn't see a single person, so was suitably socially distanced and found this little object.  It looks like a bottle stopper, but has "57" on the top.



It is a about the diameter of a half dollar.  I think it might be for a Heinz 57 product.  I found a photo of one for sale listed as a Heinz 57 bottle stopper, but I don't know the age, product or type of bottle it goes with.

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Yesterday I posted a list of beach closings.  William K. sent this addition.

Read your guide today. I live in Indian Harbour Beach and the beaches are not closed here. The access parking lots to the public beaches in Satelite Beach, Melbourne Beach etc. have been barricaded, but you can park nearby and walk to the beach. This past weekend "they" closed the beaches for the weekend only from 11:00-16:00.

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The most entertaining and informative things I saw all week was when Fauci and Birx stumbled around trying to present and explain their graphs/models to the press. 

We are very much accustomed to watching the hurricane models every year and are very familiar 
with the cone of uncertainty.  We know how inexact (wrong) the models can be, and the meteorologists and public has learned the huge cost, psychological/social and otherwise, that can result.   

The equivalent of the cone of uncertainty on the epidemiological model that they presented ( I think it is referred to as the Imperial model) was huge.  Nobody pointed that out.  

They didn't bring those models and graphs back to the last briefing.  I'd be surprised if we see them again.  They raised more questions in the briefing than they answered.  It forced them to defend the unproven assumptions and arbitrariness of the model they selected.  Birx admitted to the public their model was skewed by the abundance of New York data, which is the most extreme and atypical case.  Admitting that the data is skewed wasn't the bad thing.  The bad thing was that they did not make clear why they chose what appears to be one of the most extreme models and they did not explain their assumptions and the degree of uncertainty involved.  Nonetheless, their stumbling attempt to present it all to the public was a good thing.  I'm sure they will learn from it, as we all have learned from the hurricane models we watch every year.

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I very much enjoy epistemology and studying models and looking data, and the assumptions and levels of uncertainty.  It is very much the same in meteorology and epidemiology.  Investigating the underlying processes is the fun of it to me.  It is the same with treasure hunting.  It is about problem solving and creativity.   At the center of it all are the same philosophical and psychological questions.

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The other day I mentioned something like, asking Dr. Fauci if he would need more data would be like asking a car salesman if you should buy a new car.   But there is one time a car salesman will not say you should buy a new car.  …   When he is selling used cars.
   

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It looks like the surf predictions for Sunday will be a foot or so smaller than previously predicted.

Happy hunting (whether it is in the search for knowledge or objects - same thing),
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Monday, March 30, 2020

3/30/20 Report - Mule Error Coin Found. Top Florida History Stories. Predictive Models and Specializing.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Valuable Mule Error Coin Found in Piggy Bank.
Source: See ManOfMany.com link below.

Parents often employ piggy banks as a way to teach their children how to save money. That practice is paying off for one Melbourne mum. While helping her daughter count the coins in her piggy bank, the mum discovered a Mule dollar that is worth thousands.

“What’s a Mule dollar?” the mum wrote in her Facebook post chronicling the discovery. “It’s a small number of the year 2000 $1 dollar coins that had been minted using the incorrect obverse die (heads side) and released into circulation by mistake and only discovered a year or two later.” The Royal Australian Mint had mixed up the 10 cent die with that of the $1 die. It’s an easy mistake to make, as the two coins are off by just 1.4 millimetres, but it’s enough of a difference that you can clearly see a double rim circle going around the coin...


Here is the link for more of that story

https://manofmany.com/entertainment/mum-finds-mule-dollar-in-daughters-piggy-bank

Thanks to William K. for sending me that link.


And here is a link you can use to find more information on the Australian $1/10-cent mule error coins.

https://www.australian-coins.com/error-coins/2000-1-10-cent-mule/

One of the most prominent U.S. mule errors is has the obverse of a Washington state quarter and the reverse of a Sacagawea dollar.

One alternative you have when you aren't able to metal detect is search for error coins.  Maybe go back through old finds or those you have saved.

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DJ sent an interesting link.  It is the online Daytona Beach News Journal's article on the top 25 Florida stories of all time.

Florida History: Here are Florida’s top 25 stories of all time.  They include stories from the time of Juan Ponce de Leon up to some of our more recent hurricanes, and a lot of important stories from the various centuries.

Here is a link to a good article from the Daytona Beach News Journal online:

https://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20190110/florida-history-here-are-floridas-top-25-stories-of-all-time

You can click on each that you want to learn more about.

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We all use data to make predictions, manage risk and make decisions.  We have our own informal mental models of how things work.  Some people are more precise and statistical or probabilistic in their decision making than others.  In the past I did one or two posts on math for metal detecting that could help you with site selection.

As Florida residents we know a bit about the use of models.  Every hurricane season we consult models that attempt to predict the strength of hurricanes and where they will hit.  We therefore know that models are not always correct.

It wasn't long ago that we were all making preparations for a big hurricane that turned out for us to be not much of anything.   There was a huge cost to all the wasted preparations, and I talked about it back then.

Now everyday we are hearing about the coronavirus models, but I haven't heard or seen as much about those models as I saw and heard about the hurricane models.  In fact, on TV they are mostly giving us the predictions of the most extreme coronavirus model.  I'm not so sure that is wise.

The epidemiological models depend upon data and assumptions just like any other model.  We don't have much data on coronavirus specifically, and the models may or may not be very accurate.   I'd like to see how the various models compare and the range of predictions.

Every day I look at the surf report.  The surf predictions are the result of models.  A few years ago I noticed that they often predicted a big surf 10 days or so out, but very often the prediction of a large surf would disappear as the time got nearer.  Evidently there was a systematic error in the model, which it appears was fixed.

In a way, trying to determine when a beach will be productive for metal detecting is a bit like informal modeling.  Several factors go into it, and sometimes we are right and sometimes wrong.  We know some of the factors that seem to predict, and we try to improve our understanding of how it works.  I'm sure I will never be correct all the time, but part of the fun, for me, is studying things and improving my understanding.

Improving my understanding is a game to me that is almost as much fun as finding something.  I like to check myself.  Even if I don't think an area will be productive, I will often check it out anyhow just to see if I was right or wrong.  If I check and find that I was right, I gain confidence in my model.  But when I am wrong I try to figure out why so I can improve my model.

With the coronavirus models it isn't a matter of fun.  It is much more serious, but still the analysis and problem solving is very much the same.  And it is being done by people who spent much of their life on it.

There is a minor problem with being a specialist.  You have a focus and narrowness of thought and vision.  I believe that holds for treasure hunting or metal detecting too.  The more you do one thing, the more narrow you become in your understanding and approach.

In a recent post I said there is always a way.  I believe that, whether it applies to metal detecting or ways to maintain social distancing while getting businesses running again.  You adapt.

You can know more than anyone else about some narrow subject or type of endeavor, and partly because of that specialization lack the creativity and breadth of vision necessary for the most creative solutions.  There are trade-offs.  You can't be everything.   You have to make decisions.  It helps to know who you are and your strengths and weaknesses whatever you are doing.

Asking Tony Fauci if you need to collect more data and take more precautions is something like asking a car salesman if you should buy a new car.  I'm not minimizing Dr. Fauci's genius, only pointing to the fact that he is like everyone else in that he brings who he is to the decision making, but no matter who you are or what you do, there are times when you need to challenge yourself, your preconceptions and self-imposed limitations, be creative and change in new and productive ways.

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Oh, oh.

We have are going to have a couple of days of one foot surf, but in about a week they are predicting a five to eight foot surf.

Be wise, be well,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Thursday, August 29, 2019

8/26/19 Report - Still A Lot of Uncertainty About Dorian's Path. Big Surf Predicted.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Spaghetti Models for Dorian.
Unfortunately I can't offer much clarity this morning.  As you can see, the spaghetti models are literally all over the place, ranging from south of us up to Georgia.

I haven't seen the 8 AM National Hurricane Center update.  It seems it is late.  I think they don't know what is going on yet.

Windy.com Plot This Morning.
Windy.com shows Dorian making landfall near Palm Beach (see above) on Monday morning.  One of the well respected Euro models was used.  I think it was EMCWF.

Ventusky.com - GFS Model.
As you can see, the GFS model shows it going into the Cape Canaveral area.

It looks like it will take more time to get it better narrowed down.  We are definitely in the cone though.

MagicSeaWeed is now predicting a high surf for Sunday.  Up to ten feet.  It is limited to a single day though.

I'm sure they can't be too exact until they know more about the course of the storm.


Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.


I'll be watching for updates and developments.  If there is any clarity, I'll be back later today.

Keep watching,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net


Saturday, May 25, 2019

5/25/19 Report - Breastplate with Carved Desert Glass Scarab. Old Swan Bottle. Hurricane Season Predictions.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the Exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

King Tut's Breatplate.
Source: TheJewelerBlog link below.


Among the items decorated with gold, silver and precious gemstones was a breastplate depicting the god Ra as a winged scarab carrying the sun and moon into the sky. The scarab was carved from a pale greenish-yellow stone that Carter originally identified as chalcedony, a translucent variety of quartz.

A decade later, British geographer Patrick Clayton found samples of a similar glass-like material while exploring the Libyan Desert along the border of modern Egypt and Libya and classified it as Libyan Desert Glass (LDG).

In a recent article published at Forbes.com, geologist David Bressan explains that LDG forms when quartz-rich desert sand is exposed to a heat burst of 3,600°F and then rapidly cools. Modern researchers noted that LDG has a different crystal structure than common quartz and contains traces of rare minerals and unusual elements, suggesting they could have been part of a vaporized meteorite...
Here is the link.

https://thejewelerblog.wordpress.com/2018/11/07/tutankhamuns-breastplate-features-a-scarab-carved-from-rare-libyan-desert-glass/

Also see



That story goes along with my 5/18/19 and 5/19/19 posts that mentioned Hiroshima sea glass and Trez's Trinitite collection.

Those were caused by atomic blasts while the glass that was carved into Tut's yellow scarab, it seems, were produced by a meteor strike.

If you want to see tektites, Libyan Desert Glass and the like, here is web site where you can do that.

https://www.meteorites-for-sale.com/tektites-for-sale.html

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Found Ink Bottle With Cap On and Dried Ink Inside.

I seldom find a bottle with a cap, but it does happen, but not only does this bottle have its cap, it also has some of the original contents.

I'm not absolutely sure I know the company, but I think I do.  The cap shows a swan, and the bottom reads 78 - GERMANY.


Top and Bottom of the Same Bottle.

I did not find information on Swan Ink, but I did find an ad for Swan fountain pens.  Since it was common for the companies that made or sold fountain pens to also sell ink, I think that the company that made Swan pens also made Swan ink.

Here is the ad.


My conclusion is that the Mabie, Todd, and Bard company sold the Swan ink.  The one problem I have with this conclusion is that the bottle is labeled GERMANY, and so far I have seen no reference to the company being in Germany.

For more on Swan and other fountain pens see http://dirck.delint.ca/beta/?page_id=1343.

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Fountain pens were popular in the 1920s and 1930s.  Did you know that fountain pens were preferred for legal documents because experts could tell what kind of nib was used.  That information could be helpful if there was some question about a possible counterfeit signature.

Can you also believe that when I went to school the desks had a hole for a 2 oz. ink bottle, and the children used a sharp metal pointed fountain pen for classes in penmanship?

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NOAA is predicting 9 - 15 named storms and 4 - 8 hurricanes this hurricane season, which is about average.

Here is the link.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-season-2019-hurricane-center-reveals-atlantic-forecast-outlook-today-2019-05-23/

Those hurricanes may or may not make landfall.

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The tides are small now, and the surf is running around two or three feet.  There will be no big change in the surf for at least a few days.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Saturday, March 16, 2019

3/16/19 Report - Eight Foot Surf Possible Soon. Tips for Detectorists. Who Moved My Cheese. Wood Find.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Source: MagicSeaWeed.com
The big news for me today is the forecast.  MagicSeaWeed is predicting up to an eight foot surf for next Tuesday.  The wind will be mostly northeast and the tides are increasing too.  If that holds or gets even better we might be in for some good beach hunting conditions.

Keep watching.

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A couple decades ago, a book entitled Who Moved My Cheese was very popular in the field of business motivation.  Despite the title, the book isn't about cheese at all, but uses two mice and two miniature people as characters in a parable to illustrate some important lessons.  Every detectorist should read that book, or at least learn the lessons the book teaches.

Doing the book a gross injustice, I'll boil it down to this - the mice lived in a maze and were accustomed to  always finding abundant cheese in a particular location, but one day when they went out to get their daily fill, they find no cheese where they always found it in the past.  They fear there will be no more cheese and blame everybody else for their failure  (thus the title Who Moved My Cheese) instead of moving on and finding a new cache.

Here are some of the main lessons from the book.  Things will change.  Change is inevitable.  Don't be afraid of change.  If you don't change you will become extinct.  Be ready to change quickly, and enjoy it again and again.

The book applies to metal detecting as well or better than it applies to business.  Things will change.  Some day you'll find that doing the same thing that was always successful in the past will no longer  work as well.  And people will think that there is no more treasure or that the beach or detecting site no longer produces.  To continue to be successful, you will have to change.  You can not keep hunting the same site, or the same kind of sites, using the same techniques and expect to continue being successful.  Be among the first to change.  Take the challenge and enjoy it.  Progressing is necessary just to stay even.

There are plenty of obstacles for detectorists, but they can and should be overcome.  Here are my four big Os - Overcome Obstacles to Open Opportunities.

An obstacle is often a sign of a new opportunities.  The obstacles don't have to be big - just big enough.  You can do well by working the places with small obstacles that no one else wants to bother with or perhaps does not know how to work.  Some that I've worked were just a little farther out of the way or covered with trash or mud or weeds or somehow not as accessible.

A lack of creativity or willingness to change can be a different type of obstacle.

If it was really easy, everybody else would do it, and sometimes it seems like they are.  If you are just doing he easy stuff, there will be plenty of others that are doing it too. If you are doing what is easy, that is one sign that it is time to start thinking about how you can take the next step.

There are always new frontiers.   And you might be surprised how much is out there to be found.  That is one reason I tell you day after day about what is being found.

I'll never forget the first time I went out on a wooded hillside in West Virginia.  Everybody said, "There is nothing there. You won't find anything."  On my first outing, I found a gold 1940 something high school class ring.  On subsequent outings, I found old coins and relics from previous centuries.

On my first outing on a Caribbean island, I found 18th century military buttons, ordnance and other relics.

But you don't have to go to distant places.   There is stuff almost everywhere.

I no longer live near the glitzy resorts of Miami where people visited and lost their coins and jewelry for over a hundred years.  I now live in an unremarkable place that has to be maintained continually just to keep it from once again becoming a wooded mass of thorns, vines and trees.  There is nothing that would suggest that anything ever went on there - certainly nothing important.  It is a place no different than millions and millions of other places.  Yet within walking distance, and without any equipment or anything other than the clothes to cover my nakedness, I've found fossils that are millions of years old, Native American artifacts, pioneer relics as well as most of the bottles and glass insulators that I've posted.  I'm just saying there is a lot of stuff out there.  I'm not talking about some world-famous treasure island where you might expect to find buried treasure galleons or the Holy Grail or Ark of the Covenant where people have searched for centuries and turned everything upside down with heavy equipment and scanned with high tech tools.  I'm talking about Anywhere USA.  You don't have to go far unless you have a particular treasure in mind.

I can't tell you all the kinds of places you should look or how you should work them,pl but they don't have to be far away.  In fact, they might be right under your nose.   Believe it or not there are more places that are unhunted than places that are over-hunted.

My main point today is that there is a lot still out there to be found, but like the book says, you might have to make some changes to find it.

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Dale J. sent me the following photos of his find.

Find and photo by Dale J.

He said, The red circles show rusted iron, a close up of the one possible spike sticking out, there are oyster shells only on one end. Not sure how long it was washed up it was not moving in today’s small surf. This is north  of Ft. Pierce Inlet.  About 8 feet long and 12x12 inches.

Here is another look.

Find and photo by Dale J.

Interesting!  Thanks Dale.

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Keep watching the surf reports.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Wednesday, September 12, 2018

9/12/18 Report - Beach Conditions and Predictions as Florence Nears Landfall. Spanish Coin Find.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.



Do you recognize this silver dollar sized coin?  I found it back not long after I just began metal detecting.  I think you can see why I thought it might be something good.

Besides being new to metal detecting, we didn't have all the helpful internet resources, web site and forums to help with the research, so it was quite a while before I learned much about it.

As a new detectorist three or four decades ago, I thought I might have found something noteworthy when I dug it up.


These aren't bad pictures.  The coin is well worn.

It turns out it does have some silver content, but it isn't very old.  It is a 1957 Mexico one-peso coin.

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John Brooks Beach This Morning About 8 AM.

I had a few minutes to take a quick look at the beach this morning. As you can see above, the waves were hitting straight on and, there was no erosion at John Brooks at that time. There were a few more shells at the high tide line.


Turtle Nest Marker Near Center of Photo.
I noticed the turtle nest and was reminded of the environmental damage done by beach renourishment.  There is NO chance that this turtle nest will productive.  It won't be long before it washes away.  

I'm glad I'm not preparing for a hurricane to hit this morning.

I was well out in front of the media on Florence.  A week ago I talked about it heading toward the Carolina's and hanging around a while.  The predictions haven't changed much on this one.

MagicSeaWeed shows the surf starting to increase later today.

Source: MagicSeaWeed.com


Florence.
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
There is one change.  It now looks like Florence will bend south a little.

Isaac.
Source: nhc.noaa.gov
It looks like Isaac is going to stay south of us.

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We'll see what happens later today.  So far it is quiet on the Treasure Coast.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net


Friday, May 25, 2018

5/25/18 Report - Subtropical Storm Named Alberto. Snakes Worth Money. The Power of Ideas.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Clip From Ventusky.com
We now have a named subtropical storm.  It is the same system that I've been watching for a few days, and the name is Alberto, still down around the Yucatan but heading north towards the Florida Panhandle

I checked Ventusky this morning.  Here is what it showed for Monday the 28th at 8 AM.  

Remember, these are only predictions from one web site, and the predictions will undoubtedly change over the next few days.  The above suggests that the storm will make landfall around Monday.

I think we all remember Irma from last year and how unpredictable that one was.

You'll also notice from this prediction that the Treasure Coast probably won't be much affected by this storm unless things change dramatically.  At this point, it looks like we'll most likey only get south winds and a four foot surf at most.

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There are a lot of things out there in nature that can cause problems for you.  Just this morning I got hit by some kind of nasty stinging weed, was buzzed but not stung by wasps, and yesterday I encountered a diamond back rattlesnake.  That was not an amusing surprise.

If you are in the briars, weeds and brush a lot where such things might live, you might consider getting a good pair of snake boots or snake chaps.

It seems like I see a lot of coral snakes.  They are venomous too.  I"m told that you can get $1200 for coral snakes that will be used to produce anti-venom.  Now don't go running out to catch coral snakes unless you really know what you are doing.

I'm reminded of the time when I saw a large python crawling along the dunes of the beach very near the Flagler pier.  That was a sight, but that didn't bother me nearly as much as being surprised by a rattler's warning.

One time when about to start on a trail in El Dorado Canyon, I spotted a snake coiled on a rock just up ahead.  Not being a snake lover, I stopped in my tracks and didn't approach.  I threw a stone, which sailed well over the snake's head   The snake didn't move.  I threw another stone, and although it was a little closer, the snake still didn't move.  The third stone hit on the big rock very close to the snake, but again, no response.  Now I'm suspicious.  I'm wondering whats up with that snake?

Then a lady comes  down the path towards me and right past the snake like she didn't even notice it.  I asked her what kind of snake it was.  She said, "Its a sculpture."

It was!  It was a stone snake.  On the other side of the big rock by the sculpture was a big sign warning that there might be rattlesnakes on the trail.  But the snake that stopped me before I even got started was a sculpture.  It wasn't really the snake that stopped me, it was my mistaken idea.

I've used that personal true story as an illustration many times.  It is not unusual to be stopped by fears or concerns.  It is not unusual to be stopped by perceptions, even if they are not totally accurate.  If you think of it, your perceptions and ideas control you even more than reality. Ideas determine feelings and behaviors - not events.

Some people are more successful than others.  People who are not very successful tend to blame everything other than themselves.  They sometimes blame their circumstances when they should be looking within.

In treasure hunting, you're lucky when you have a bunch of facts to guide you.  Very often you're dealing mostly with theories, guesses or hunches.

As important as it is to objectively examine the world, it is just as important to examine and test your own beliefs.  Your ideas can hold you back or help you succeed.

Many problems are opportunities in disguise.  They are just waiting to be solved.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Saturday, April 7, 2018

4/7/18 Report - Hurricane Season Predictions. Freemasons. Lidar at Montpelier. Renourishment at Jensen.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Renourishment Project At Jensen Beach
Photo by Michael A.

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This year’s hurricane season is shaping to be another big one with a greater than 60% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline, according to a new forecast from top meteorologists...
Unusually warm waters in the western tropical Atlantic contributed to the forecast for an above-average season as hurricanes form more easily in warm conditions. Waters in other parts of the Atlantic remained cooler than average...
Here is the link.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/forecasters-warning-apos-hurricane-season-155004384.html

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For centuries, the secrets of the Freemasons were known only to members.
But that’s about to change after BBC staff were given unprecedented access to several Scottish lodges (the freemason term for chapters or branches) to create a brand new documentary.
The society evolved out of Scotland after stonemasons working on the country’s public buildings in the 1500s banded together — in a similar way to modern trade unions — in a bid to protect the secrets and interests of their trade...

For more:  https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/real-life/secrets-freemasons-revealed-grand-lodge-12204518

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ORANGE COUNTY, Va. (WVIR) -
Archaeologists at James Madison's Montpelier are getting a glimpse into the property's past by using new technology that allows them to see things they’ve never before been able to see...
This technology - called lidar - allows archaeologists to see paths through the woods that date back to the 1700s. They say these trails were walked every day by slaves.
Lidar technology uses infrared light beams and works similarly to radar. You can see through the trees, and spot features like mill races, home sites, old roads, and foot paths.
"What lidar does is it allows us to produce a high-resolution terrain map of the landscape," says Reeves...
“What we’re able to do is capture some really subtle features on the landscape that nobody has known about since the 1820s when the enslaved community lived and worked on this plantation and really in a lot of ways what we’re able to capture is the footpaths, the road networks that were here during the Madison era, and then reconstruct those,” says Reeves.
The goal now is to restore these newfound trails...

For more: http://www.nbc29.com/story/37890379/montpelier-archaeologists-employ-new-technology-to-reveal-slave-experience

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Michael A. reports spending a lot of time covering the area around the Reef Club on South Hutchinson Island this week with very little luck other than sinkers, hooks and the like.

Thanks to Michael for the report and photo at the top of the post!

I went out for a walk this morning to see what I could see and completely struck out.

This week week the surf won't be any higher than two or three feet.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Monday, March 5, 2018

3/5/18 Report - Big Surf But Not Much Erosion Around the Treasure Coast. Mystery Find.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Mystery Object
Find and photo by Scott B.
Here is what Scott said about this find.

I attached a picture of a brass ( maybe bronze?) item I found in some woods near my house in Fernandina Beach. It’s hard to tell from the picture, but it bows out (convex) toward the camera. This convex bend seems to be how it was made, but I might be wrong. The size of the nail holes also varies.

What do you think it is?  Send me an email with your ideas.

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John Brooks Monday Afternoon.
I went out to take a look at a few beaches this afternoon.  The water had been high on the beach.  In fact at Walton Rocks it had been up over the beach and into the parking lot.  Despite the high water, I found almost no erosion, and the erosion that I did find was only in renourishment sand.  Shells were very scarce too.  To sum it up, the South Hutchinson Island beaches that I saw were very sandy.

Above you can see a photo of John Brooks beach.  Too bad some idiot kept sticking his finger over the lens.

Another View of John Brooks Monday Afternoon.
Notice the pile of weeds that shows where the water stopped.

John Brooks Beach Monday Afternoon.
The above photo doesn't show it well, but what I wanted to show with this shot is how far out the waves were breaking.  They were breaking 60 or more feet out because of all the sand in front of the beach.

Even though the water was high, there were at least three things that kept the beaches from cutting.  One is the angle of the waves. In the above photo you can see that the white water is parallel to the beach.  The water was coming right up over the beach instead of slicing away at it.

Second was the amount of sand pile in front of the beach, preventing the beach from much of the water force.  The sand in front of the beach also protected any coins that might have been buried there.

The third factor is all of the renourishment sand that has been dumped on the beaches the past few years.  Some of it gets washed out, where it protects the front of the beach.  That sand will move south, so some of the sand in front of John Brooks probably came from the north where they keep dumping sand and it keeps getting washed away.  At other beaches the renourishment covers the front of the dunes so that the older material is not exposed.

DB sent in his observations too.  Here is what he said.

Thought I'd check in but looks like you know, it's terrible out there still. 

He also said Turtle Trail had been closed for some time and mentioned the millions of wasted dollars going into that project.  He continued as follows.

It was pretty funny but sad watching six dump trucks full of sand lined up there two days before a major storm would hit.

Anyhow, it's pretty poor all around, some dunes are cut but like you mentioned it's fill dirt and what I like to call kitty litter.

Hopefully something happens soon,

Thanks DB.


Source: MagicSeaWeed.com
As you can see, the surf will start to decrease over the next few days.  The wind will switch too.  The wind will be coming form the south for a day or so, and then switch again.  Then another front will come through and we'll have some north winds again.

People used to talk only about big waves as the thing to watch for.  A lot of people now realize that it takes more than just big waves.  Angles and other things are important.  I've been talking about that in this blog for quite a few years now.

Sometimes the window of opportunity opens for an hour or so and then closes just as quickly.  You just have to be there.

It looks like Fort Pierce is turning into a tourist destination.  I never saw so many out of state cars down by the jetty.  The beach is busy (by Fort Pierce standards ).

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Thursday, March 1, 2018

3/1/18 Report - 9 - 13 Foot Surf Predicted For Next Week. Counterfeit Coin Ring. Cannons Found. Eroding Graves.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Counterfeit Morgans Made in China.
Source:TheSpruce.com (Link immediately below.)
Yesterday I posted a link to a very good web site that tells how to identify counterfeit and fake coins.  Here is a link to an article about a Chinese counterfeiting ring.

https://www.thespruce.com/chinese-coin-counterfeiting-ring-4071202

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The following excerpts provide a reminder of the continual effect of erosion, and it relates to something else I've mentioned a few times lately.

There have been more than a million people buried in the mass graves on Hart Island since 1980, but since the damage of Hurricane Sandy, that’s become a gruesome problem...

“The cliffs of Hart Island are sort of exposed and bones are washing up on Long Island Sound – that hasn’t been repaired yet,” said Melinda Hunt, the founding director of the Hart Island Project which identified more than 67,000 people buried there.

Most of the problem is in the northern shore of Hart Island where there is a steep bank heavily damaged by the 2012 storm.

“If you are in Orchard Beach, which has lots and lots of New Yorkers, it’s what you are looking at directly,” said Hunt. “That’s where are bones are washing up into the sound.”


http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2018/02/26/bones-from-hart-island-mass-graves-washing-up-in-local-communities/

After one reader brought up the question, I've been asking about 1715 graves that have been discovered.  I've received reports of one or two being discovered, but that is about it - nothing like you might expect from the number of deaths.

My thought has been that the dead would have been buried as quickly as possible by people trying to survive in the summer heat and humidity after a hurricane.  The graves at Hart Island were being eroded and washed out.  I suspect that the same thing might have happened to the survivor graves on the Treasure Coast.  Of course I have no evidence of that - just a theory.

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Source: TheStar.com (See link below). 

GEORGE TOWN: Archaeologists in Penang discovered twin cannons buried 1.2m below the ground beside Fort Cornwallis at the Esplanade here.

The 2.2m and 2.35m-long cannons, which are believed to be at least 200 years old, were discovered during the excavation of the fort’s moat and outer defensive structures at around 2pm on Monday.

Penang chief archaeologist Datuk Dr Mokhtar Saidin said the discovery could change Fort Cornwallis’ history as a “peaceful fort.” 

Here is the link if you want to read the rest of the article.

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/02/21/double-ang-pow-discovery-in-penang/

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Source: MagicSeaWeed.com.
Here is the really big news.  March might actually march in like a lion.  The predictions have been very consistent for a few days now.  After a few weeks of summer-like weather and beach conditions, this big surf might actually happen.  Its only a few days off now.  Time to check out your equipment and get your batteries charged.  Not only will the surf be big, but the predictions are showing a north wind along with the big surf.  We also now have some nice big tides.


Wednesday, February 28, 2018

2/28/18 Report - Button ID in Process. Great Web Site for Identifying Fake Coins. Big Surf Predicted.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Found on Internet by Alberto S.
The above button is VERY much like the button I asked about yesterday (Shown below for your convenience.).  The differences are very small.

As you can see the button above was conjectured to be either WW I or WW II English/Canadian or from the Royal Italian Navy and rumored to be found at a Civil War site.  Lot of confusion there.  I'm still thinking good possibility of being modern decorative.  The back of the above button is missing while mine is obscured by encrustation.  When the back is cleaned, that should help narrow down the age of the button.  At this point, I'd guess maybe 20th century.

Mystery Button.
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I've been tumbling a lot of coins and cleaning some things lately.  When I was in Harbor Freight the other day I noticed they had a good variety of tumblers.  I'd never think of looking there for tumblers.

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Here is a super web site for identifying counterfeit and fake coins.  It is really exceptional and think you'll want to take a look at it.  It tells how to identify counterfeit coins of all types.  I mentioned it once some years ago.

Here it is.

http://www.coinnews.net/2008/02/01/archaeologists-find-old-gold-coin-worth-45000-in-latrine-at-construction-site-3899/

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"The original idea of the internet was a very decentralized system and a democratic space where everyone could have a place to talk," said Taplin. "The big three online: Google, Facebook and Amazon, are more and more becoming monopolies, so it is a winner takes all business."

We are all internet users and this is something you should know about, The internet is used for commerce communication and influence. Whether you want to sell a coin, do some research, or stick up for your hobby, you should know about the power of the internet. It can change markets, culture and who wins elections. If any of the tech giants throws their weight ever so slightly in one direction or another it can influence the world.

Here is the link to read more about that.
https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/silicon-valley-faces-make-or-break-moment-amid-big-tech-n847301

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The big news for me is the prediction of a bigger surf starting Sunday.  The predictions seem to be holding steady.  Still a few days left to see if it really happens.

Surf Predictions for Fort Pierce Area
Source: MagicSeaWeed.com
The moon is getting fuller and the tides are getting bigger.  We'll have some pretty good tides today.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net


Wednesday, October 4, 2017

10/4/17 Report - Beach Erosion and Conditions. Jupiter Beach. Musket Balls and Lead Shot Finds. Nine or Ten Foot Surf. PM Update.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Seven Foot Cliff At Fort Pierce South Jetty Park Yesterday Afternoon.





Most of the sand they dumped here a couple of months ago is almost gone.  It is all renourishment sand.  That doesn't mean there can't be something old in it.  I showed one WW II hat emblem that I found in renourishment sand there once.  It depends upon where the new sand came from, and I don't know where that is, although I think it is from near the south bridge in the river.

Fort Pierce South Jetty Park Looking South Tuesdsay Afternoon.
You can't see it in the picture, but there was a detectorist working the slope at the bend.  That is the an area I mentioned once as producing a lot of WW II dog tags.  It is also not far from an old wreck that is believed to well picked over.


Frederick Douglass Park Looking South Yesterday Afternoon.
As I said yesterday, the water was high and getting back over the berm, but there were no cuts or other erosion at John Brooks or Frederick Douglas Tuesday afternoon.  I suspect most erosion will be around barriers or obstacles such as rocks, jetties or erosion control structures ( irony ).

I was going to take a picture at John Brooks too, but the rain started pouring down and I couldn't get the picture.  It turned out to be so much like Frederick Douglass that it wasn't necessary anyhow.

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Joe D. sent the following report from Jupiter.

South of inlet conditions are pretty much unchanged! Worked a little farther south past the renurished beach and did find a small coin line along a small cut that had formed from morning high tides! Hoping the King Tides will create a few more cuts since the wind and waves are making low tide hunting unavailable awhile!

Thanks much Joe!
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I showed a lot of lead and musket ball Irma finds.  In one other post I mentioned the following web site that was referred to me by Trez.

http://woodsrunnersdiary.blogspot.com/2016/04/more-on-small-shot-for-smoothbores.html

If you do some research, you'll find that musket balls can be tell you a lot.  Don't just look at them as round balls of lead even though that is what they look like.

The size can tell you a lot.  You can find tables that tell you the size to be used for different types of wild game, for example.  One size is recommended for pigeons and another size for ducks and another size for geese.

The size can also tell you something about the type of gun.  Smaller sizes were used as buck and sometimes shot with larger size balls.  The next larger size would be used for pistols, and then carbines and muskets.

You can find tables giving the size and weight of lead shot recommended for both different kinds of wild game and different fire arms.

By looking at the examples I've posted the last few days, I think the musket balls were being made at a camp on the beach.  Any spare lead could be melted and poured into molds.

Here are a couple links to start, if you want to learn what you might be able to tell from musket balls, or perhaps more properly, lead shot.

http://www.rubiconheritage.com/2011/12/16/biting-the-bullet-the-archaeology-of-musketballs/

https://finds.org.uk/database/artefacts/record/id/266828

The PAS finds database is a good resource.  Too bad we don't have something like that in Florida or the U. S.

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There was a time when everyone would be eagerly hoping for a nine or ten foot surf.  Now after the hurricanes and big surf that brought very little erosion, it seems that a lot of people are discouraged, but even without big cuts and erosion this is still better than the continual summer south winds.  It gives you a chance, and at any time a window of opportunity could open up.  I'm rating Treasure Coast beach detecting conditions as a 2 on my 5 point scale.  It is far from excellent, but certainly better than those boring summer conditions.  Some old things will be found.

Here is the Wednesday prediction summary.



I love the windy rainy weather.  I guess I associate it with some of the better hunting days of the past and for me it is a lot better than the hot beating sun.

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One day remaining to respond to the blog poll.  Shortly after that one, there will be another blog poll to follow up.

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PM Update

I took a look at John Brooks, Frederick Douglas and Waton Rocks and saw very little change in any of the beaches from yesterday.  No cuts other than to the base of a few new front beach dunes in one case, and some renourishment sand near the back of the beach in another case. 

It looked like a the first two beaches might have a flat spot near the waters edge.  There seems to be a wide sand bar in front of those beaches.  Maybe it will separate from the beach a little at low tide.  I still feel a few old things will be found on the Treasure Coast.  I thought there were some spots worth checking out even if they weren't terribly exciting.  I have not seen and have no reports from Vero/Sebastian yet.


Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net