Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.
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| Source: MagicSeaWeed.com. |
Here is what the surf is supposed to be if the current predictions are correct. This is the Fort Pierce map. The one for Sebastian isn't very different.
So, what has changed since yesterday? The models are now showing landfall between Jupiter and Palm Beach Gardens. The GFS model, which was previously showing landfall up by Melborne, is now very much agreeing with the ECMWF model and a landfall more to the south of us, and the National Hurricane Center is going with the more southerly landfall.
Above is the 8 AM cone. That is close to us and there is plenty of time for change. What has been a northwest track is expected to become more of an east to west track. We are at a point where a slight change in the angle will make a big difference in the point of landfall. If Dorian doesn't turn as sharply as expected, we could easily be looking at a landfall up towards Cape Canaveral again.
It seems to me that the ECMWF model has been one of the more accurate models, not only this time but also for past storms.
You can see that the higher surf now is expected for three days. That is due to the expected path being more to the south and us getting more northeast winds, which are predicted for us for Sunday and Monday. After that we'll be getting more south winds again, which can fill back in some of the erosion.
Above you can see the predicted path of the center of Dorian. That shows in coming inland just below Jupiter and making a turn to the north. That is Grand Bahama to the right of the picture.
Below is the windy.com map from this moring. The ECMWF model is used.
Another change reflected in the morning projections is how slowly the storm is moving between the Grand Bahamas and landfall.
The angle Dorian takes out of the turn today will have a lot to do with where it makes landfall.
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You'll also notice from MagicSeaWeed that the tides are now pretty big too.
Chris N. wrote with an important reminder. He said, Safety to the folks who weather the storm if they stay in the area, and I hope the flooding and damage will be minimized, which should be everyone's main concern.
That is an important point. Treasure isn't worth a human life. Stay safe.
Just a few days ago I mentioned driving to Florida and arriving in Vero just after Hurricane David. Those were days when I was young, and had no one and almost nothing to care about. Today I have other people, including an elderly person, to take care of and watch out for. That and having recently lost a family member, puts things in a different perspective.
Also having been through several hurricanes and experienced some pretty significant property damage, those things eventually get repaired. It is the people that are important.
For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?
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I hope and suspect that tomorrow will bring more clarity on the path Dorian will take. I'll be watching for any significant changes.
Before one hurricane I posted a link to a traffic site that shows where you might run into traffic problems. I'm going to look for that link and post it again.
Here it is. Go to https://www.google.com/maps, then type in traffic. You'll see areas where traffic is slow and where there are closures etc. Pretty handy.
I'll be back later today if there are any significant changes.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net
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| Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
It seems to me that the ECMWF model has been one of the more accurate models, not only this time but also for past storms.
You can see that the higher surf now is expected for three days. That is due to the expected path being more to the south and us getting more northeast winds, which are predicted for us for Sunday and Monday. After that we'll be getting more south winds again, which can fill back in some of the erosion.
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8 AM Friday Projected Path of the Center
Source: National Hurricane Center.
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Below is the windy.com map from this moring. The ECMWF model is used.
 |
ECMWF Model for Monday 2 - 4 PM.
Source: windy.com.
|
Another change reflected in the morning projections is how slowly the storm is moving between the Grand Bahamas and landfall.
The angle Dorian takes out of the turn today will have a lot to do with where it makes landfall.
---
You'll also notice from MagicSeaWeed that the tides are now pretty big too.
Chris N. wrote with an important reminder. He said, Safety to the folks who weather the storm if they stay in the area, and I hope the flooding and damage will be minimized, which should be everyone's main concern.
That is an important point. Treasure isn't worth a human life. Stay safe.
Just a few days ago I mentioned driving to Florida and arriving in Vero just after Hurricane David. Those were days when I was young, and had no one and almost nothing to care about. Today I have other people, including an elderly person, to take care of and watch out for. That and having recently lost a family member, puts things in a different perspective.
Also having been through several hurricanes and experienced some pretty significant property damage, those things eventually get repaired. It is the people that are important.
For what will it profit a man if he gains the whole world, and loses his own soul?
---
I hope and suspect that tomorrow will bring more clarity on the path Dorian will take. I'll be watching for any significant changes.
Before one hurricane I posted a link to a traffic site that shows where you might run into traffic problems. I'm going to look for that link and post it again.
Here it is. Go to https://www.google.com/maps, then type in traffic. You'll see areas where traffic is slow and where there are closures etc. Pretty handy.
Be safe.
I'll be back later today if there are any significant changes.
TreasureGuide@comcast.net
