Showing posts with label predicted track. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predicted track. Show all posts

Saturday, September 9, 2017

9/9/17 Reportt - Saturday PM Update Added - Irma Trending Towards The West Coast of Florida. An App or Two That Will Help You Get To The Beach.


Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


Source: nhc.noaa.gov
As you might be able to tell from the NHC track above, as of yesterday afternoon, the track moved more to the west.  coming in closer to Naples than Miami, and expected to proceed up through the state closer to Tampa than Canaveral.  If that is what actually happens, the Treasure Coast won't get the kind of damage that it would if the track stayed more east.

Now they are concerned about the storm surge that might occur on the Florida west coast.

Our surf predictions have decreased too.

Source: MagicSeaWeed.com
Yesterday they had something like a 22 foot preicted surf, now the biggest is 14 feet.  That is still to occur late Sunday.

Fourteen feet is still a lot more than the two or three feet that we have been getting most of the summer.

If the current MagicSeaWeed predictions are correct, we're not going to get the north winds either now.  Instead they will be east/northeast but mostly east.  That means that not only will the water not be as high into the dunes, but we'll probably get less erosion.  I'm not saying we won't get any.  We almost certainly will get some at various locations.  And it doesn't always take cuts to produce cobs.

After the storm and the east winds pass, we'll quickly be back to south winds - again if the predictions are correct.  That would mean that the beaches would start to refill again.

All of that, of course, is based upon what they think Irma is going to do, which might or might not be correct.  We'll see.

I've heard some say that we won't have much damage to buildings. I wouldn't mind that.  They are saying it will be more of a tree thing.  I won't mind less property damage.  Maybe - just maybe - the damage will be light enough that the beaches won't be closed.  Again, we'll see.

The predicted track could change again, but I don't think it will change much.  The models are agreeing more and the changes seem to be less frequent and drastic.

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In following Irma I found some good web sites and mentioned them.  Some I posted.

One very interesting thing I found is a traffic app.  Go to googlemaps.com.  From the menu select the "traffic" option.  You will then see a map showing how heavy traffic is on the roads.  That is useful.
One day the Turnpike was jammed and traffic at a crawl or less at a lot of locations. You could take a look at the web site and choose another route if you found one that was moving better.

I saw there was a slow down at a corner near my house, so I went out and looked down the road to see it.  At the time I didn't know how it was done, but I did see the slow moving cars represented by a red line on the map.

You might wonder how google can show the traffic flow for roads all over the state and country.  The answer is they can track people with Android phones and how fast or slow they are moving, and of course they can tell where they are.  That is pretty amazing, but you might not want to think you are being tracked like that.  You don't have to because you can turn off the location data from your phone.

Check it out.  I found it to be a very useful web site.

Before you can do any metal detecting, you have to get there.  You might also like Gas Buddy, which will tell you where they have gas and the price.

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I received some nice emails from some of the fine and thoughtful people that read this blog.

Thanks to all.

Janine K. sent the following message.

Thinking of all you Floridians and sending thoughts for a safe outcome for all. 

Thanks Janine!

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Saturday 5 PM Update.

Beach erosion has begun on Fort Pierce beach but the bridges are closed - residents and business owners are among those permitted on the island.

The wind and surf is increasing - mostly from an easterly direction.



Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

Sunday, August 24, 2014

8/24/14 Report - New Tropical Storm Christobal Formed. Predicted Track Better Defined. Detector Reviews & How To Really Evaluate a Detector.



Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.BlogSpot.com.

Predicted Track of Christobal
Source: www.nhc.noaa.gov
Yesterday I was doing something that I normally don't do.  I was reading reviews of various metal detectors.  I'm not in the habit of doing that because I prefer to do my own tests, which I conduct in my own way.

It is truly remarkable how much people disagree about detectors.  Some people will swear by a particular detector, while others will not have anything good to say about the same detector.  It is really hard to draw any conclusions from the online reviews.

I kept reading things like the Fisher 1280 didn't work in salt water or that it didn't find gold, for example.  Those are things that I know from vast personal  experience are not true.

I could only wonder how people could arrive at a conclusions like that.  It made me think that the reviews were either posted by people having a motive or bias (maybe they worked for a particular company or sold that type of detector), or they did not know how to really conduct a meaningful test.  A third possibility, which I have a hard time accepting, is that quality control is so poor that the detector manufacturers ship detectors that vary a lot in quality and capability.

From what I've seen written, I tend to believe that the second is the most likely.  It seems that people do not know how to conduct meaningful tests or do not know how to evaluate a detector, maybe because they don't really know how to use it well.

The second detector that I ever owned, and the first underwater detector that I owned was a Fisher 1280.  That was over twenty years or more ago, and I dug plenty of gold with that detector on salt water beaches and in the water.  That was an older version.  I can't believe that the ones Fisher makes today are not as good.   That is why I know that some of the reports that I read about that detector are baloney.   My 1280 found big gold and small gold in very good quantities over years of use.

When I first used the 1280 I only found medium to large gold rings with it.  In fact I remember concluding that men must lose a lot more rings than women.   However when I learned to turn down the discrimination, I started to find as many small gold rings as large gold rings.   The incorrect conclusion that I reached earlier was because of how I used the detector, not because of the detector's limitations.

You can not pay too much attention to most of the detector reviews.  I did not find one review that was based upon a really good and thorough test.   Usually people go out and use a detector a while and give their impressions.  Usually their impressions are formed before they have really learned how to use the detector or without a fair comparison with other detectors.

If you really want to compare the performance of two detectors, test them both on the same targets under field conditions.  Don't, however, use valuable test targets under field conditions that are so challenging that you might lose the test target. 

I know you can't carry two detectors around at the same time, but have someone else carry the second one.  You simply can't conduct a fair test without testing two detectors on the same targets under field conditions.

The next best thing is to take the two detectors you want to compare to the beach or wherever you plan to hunt, and also take a variety of test targets.   Test the detectors on the same targets in the same environment. 

Using test targets that you take with you is not the ideal.   Test targets will not be exactly the same as targets that have been buried by nature over time even if you do carefully bury them.  In my opinion you will do just as well to lay the test targets on the ground as to bury them because when you dig a hole and bury a test target, the sand or dirt surrounding the object is not compact like it would be if it was buried by nature and if there was time for leaching and the halo effect to form.

Even though using your own test targets is not the ideal it provides a good first step to begin with.  It provides the advantage of allowing you to select the type of targets that you are most interested in and the type of environment you plan to hunt.

If you want to find gold jewelry, don't test your detector with coins.  Use the types of targets you really want to find.

Here is the ideal.   Take the two detectors to be compared to the type of place you want to hunt.  If you want to compare them on the beach, do that, but it you want to know how they will work in the water or on dry land, test them there.

This will take two detectorists, or at least one detectorist and one person to carry the second detector.  When a signal is received, don't dig the target before switching detectors and testing how the second detector responds to the very same target under exactly the same circumstances.   After carefully listening to the signals produced by both detectors without disturbing the target, adjust the settings on both detectors to maximize the signal on the target.

The detector's settings are very important.  If they aren't maximized, your test will not reveal what the detector could do if it was being operated optimally.  That means you will be comparing how well you are using the detectors, not the detectors' capabilities.

You must know enough about the detectors to use them well for the types of targets that you want to find.  Otherwise the test is meaningless.

I believe that many of the reviews are not worth reading simply because the detectorist has not learned how to use the detector very well. 

When I tested the ACE 250 just out of the box, I was not testing it against another detector to see how it compared.  I was not trying to see if it was the best detector, only if it would work well enough to find things.   It passed that test.  I have not yet tested it on a beach and have not compared it with other detectors in a salt water environment.  Some day I'll do that.

You can't go out one day and compare what you find with one detector one day with what you find with another detector on another.  There are too many factors that are not controlled, including different targets, different ground conditions, etc.

How you use a detector is as important as the detector you use.   A person who knows how to use a lower quality detector can out-perform a person that does not know how to use a better detector.   Let me repeat - how you use your detector is a very big factor.  Don't blame your detector if you aren't using it well.

In the past I've described procedures that will help you learn to use your detector.  Test it on various types of targets.  See how changing the settings affects how it reacts to those targets.  Change your sweep speed and observe the results.  And remember, you have to put your coil over a good target before you can detect it.  Knowing where to search is very important too.

My main point today is that you can't really compare two detectors by reading the reviews that you find online.  If you really want to compare two detectors, you will need a more thorough and meaningful test than what you are likely to find online.



Well, we have a new tropical storm.  It is named Christobal.  With the forming of the storm we also got a better prediction of the track it will take.

As you can see they expect Christobal to remain to the east of the Bahamas.   That means we will not get the full force.  As a result, the surf predictions for the Treasure Coast have been slightly reduced from yesterday.  The peak surf expected for the Treasure Coast Tuesday and Wednesday is now more like four feet.  That is not normally enough to increase my beach conditions rating, but could result in a small rating change if other factors such as the angle of the wind and waves are good.

I'm happy for any increase in surf.  I'd like to see a little sand get stirred up and perhaps even a dip or two created.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@Comcast.net