9/3/19 Report - Dorian Updates. Decision Making. Risk and Reward Evaluations. Other Weather.

Written by the TreasuireGuide for the exclusive use of treasurbeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Newest most recent update:  TV news is reporting that the bridges to South Hutchinson Island are open if you have two forms of ID showing that you are a resident or have a business on the island.

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Most recent update: DJ just said the Indian River Bridges are now open.

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DJ just sent me the following phone message from Indian River County EOC.

"Dorian Update Tuesday 10:00 AM

The Indian River County Emergency Operations Center expects sustained tropical storm force winds to reach our county in the next several hours. We have already experienced tropical storm force gusts. Hurricane force gusts are expected to accompany the sustained tropical storm force winds. We ask that the public remain off the roadways and businesses remain closed at this time. Bridges/Causeways remain closed at this time. FPL is reporting less than fifty residents without power at this time. Click here for more: http://goo.gl/itpxIt “

Thanks DJ.

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Cone at 8 AM Update.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov

This week has been a costly bust.  It feels like I just binge-watched a season of The Curse of Oak Island.  A lot of talk, a lot of mistakes, a lot of effort, and nothing out of the ordinary to show for it.  Today they'll be trying to cover up by convincing us that something really happened and it wasn't all a big mistake.

Of course, something did happen, but it wasn't to Florida.  Those poor people in the Bahamas got smashed.  And we were lucky that it didn't come our way.   It still could loop around or do something weird and get us, but that now seems very unlikely at best.

They say better safe than sorry, but there is a lot to be sorry about.  As I often say, there is always more than one type of mistake and as you become more cautious about one type, you'll probably increase the likelihood of the other type.

Take metal detecting.  If you increase your discrimination to miss junk, you'll also miss more good targets.  There are false positives and false negatives.  A false positive is getting a good signal but a junk target or no target.  A false negative would be no signal when there is really a good target present.  The thing is, you never find out about the good targets you missed, so it doesn't bother you.  People like to think they just don't miss anything, and it is easy to believe that because the evidence to the contrary doesn't present itself.

People don't realize the cost of preparing for a hurricane when it doesn't hit.  Last night all of the businesses were closed.  People lost income.  People were injured falling off ladders and cutting fingers while preparing for the hurricane that never arrived.  And all of the time, effort and expense that was put into preparing, could have gone into something more productive.  Not much will be made of it, but the mistake was very costly.

When guarding against one kind of outcome, you have to consider the results on both sides of the equation and determine if it is really worth it.  I'm not suggesting that we not prepare for hurricanes, but the REAL cost should be considered and weighed against the benefits.

It might sound like I'm just saying this because it looks like Dorian won't hit us, but that is not the case.  Just yesterday, when it looked like we could very possibly get hit much harder by Dorian, one person from the Sheriff's office, I think it was, made a comment on TV that aggravated me.   He said there was no reason for people to be out running around.  First, what does he know about your or my reasons, and second, how is he qualified to judge them.  I'd given them  a pass up to that point.  I hadn't even complained much about the needless beach closures.  I know there are reasons they don't want people out there, and to an extent it is for the public good, but it would be most convenient for them and perhaps safer for us if none of us were ever on the road or out in public, but  individuals deserve the right to make their own decisions and should also be willing to accept responsibility for the results of their actions.  The government should not be acting in loco parentis.  People should be allowed to make their own mistakes and when they make poor decisions and get in trouble, suffer the consequences without blaming anyone else.

I know it is difficult to predict weather, and I know that Dorian was an especially tough one.  I can't fault them for telling what could possibly happen.  I do think though that they should reconsider how they present information.  Perhaps they should not start putting so much emphasis on predictions that are very uncertain when a storm is still a week or more away.  At least emphasize the high rate of error at that point.  I know its a tough balancing act, and they can't predict it with a high degree of accuracy.  If they are too cautious one way, they increase the probability of the other type of error.  I'm just saying that I do not believe that the extreme cost of an entire state or multiple states preparing for a very uncertain event was fully considered in the decision making, especially when taking into account the high error rate when the event is days away.  And then there is the media that craves viewers and will do almost anything to get them.

At this point it looks like Florida dodged a bad storm.  The negative side of that is all of the cost and lost opportunity involved with preparing for an event that it now seems will not occur.

All of the things I'm talking about today apply directly to metal detecting.  The decision making process is very much the same.  The costs and risks of various types of errors  should be considered.

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Yesterday looked like what I call a "beachy" day.  It was cloudy, windy and rainy.  The wind was coming from the northeast and the white caps were building on the river.  That is the type of day I'd love to be out there.  

Source: nhc.noaa.gov

The surf is supposed to still be high but will be decreasing today.  The wind is now coming from the northwest.  That will blow the water out.

There are other things besides Dorian to watch now.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov

That is a very busy map.  Seven is supposed to go to Mexico.

I'll keep watching.  Hopefully they'll open the beaches so people other than NOAA and TV news reporters will be able to get out there.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net