9/6/17 Report - BIG Surf Predicted for Treasure Coast. Watching for Irma. Updated After 8 and 11 AM advisories.

Writtten by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.

Predicted Surf for Fort Pierce Area by MagicSeaWeed.com.

It seems to me that the National Hurricane Center has done a good job of predicting the path of hurricanes in recent years.  Still, last year we expected Matthew to hit the Treasure Coast and was surprised that it hit farther north.

We are still days away from the center of Irma and can't tell where it is going to turn.  The National Hurricane Center reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track, though, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. That is a big range.  Some models still have the track going east of us, others to the west of Florida, and some right up the middle of the state.  As a result we know very little at this point other than the fact that there is a still lot of uncertainty concerning where Irma will go.  

From the MagicSeaWeed web site it looks like we will have a big surf.  Above you can see the predicted surf for the Fort Pierce area.  It is big.  Very big.

On Sunday, when the surf is predicted to be near peak, it is also predicted to be from the north.  The beach will be very dangerous.  The beaches might get more eroded than during Francis and Jeane. Still, don't go out there until it is safe. They will probably close the bridges and beaches.  Wait until it is safe.  Think of life and safety first.  Help your neighbor.

In case you haven't found out for yourself yet, a lot of stores are already out of batteries and water.

I've been waiting for some clarity on the likely track of Irma, but haven't got it yet.  It seems to depend a lot upon when it will turn north.  As I said, some models have it going off the east coast, models have it going off the west coast and some models have it going right up through the state.

Position of Irma on Sunday at 5 PM if the GFS model is correct.
Source: Ventusky.com

Position of Irma on Monday at 2 PM if the ECMWF model is correct.
Source: Windy.com.

As you can see from the two images above, different models predict different paths.  The GFS model used for the first image is commonly used and is referred to as the American model.  It shows the hurricane heading north, right off of the Treasure Coast.  It wouldn't take much change for it to be right over the Treasure Coast.

Perhaps the most highly regarded model seems to be the European model.  That is shown in the second image, which shows Irma over by Tampa on Monday.

These two models are now a little closer than they have been at other times in the past couple of days, Unfortunately, both of them are very close to us.  

One model has the hurricane moving more quickly than the other.  GFS has it near us on Sunday, while the ECMWF shows the center nearest to us several hours later.

The models are still wiggling around quite a bit.  The next time I look, the results might be very different.  And there are other models showing different tracks.  It is really hard to tell at this point where it might go.

Source: nhc.noaa.gov

This is the National Hurricane Center track as shown after the Sept. 5, 11 PM advisory.  It looks closer to the European model.  

After the 5 AM advisory, they changed the nhc track to go up the middle of the state.  It looks like they are splitting the difference between the European and American models.

New Irma NHC Track After 5 AM Advisory.

After the 8 AM Update, I looked at the GFS and European model and both are now to the east of the Treasure Coast, but the European model is a little closer to the coast than the GFS.  After the 8 AM update, those two models seem to be converging.

Source: wunderground.com

The GFS model is shown above in red.  I snipped this at about 8:30 AM.  The European model isn't one of the ones shown here, but you can see the UKMET model runs right along the coast.   The general trend now seems to be more to the east.  I have no problem with that.
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11 AM NHC Advisory

The Irma track posted on the NHC web site after the 11 AM advisory is very much like the UKMET model that that you can see in the picture  .  NHC now shows a track moving along the east coast of Florida and very much over the Treasure Coast (below).

Source: nhc.noaa.gov

The new NHC track is closer to the European and GFS models that I showed earlier too.

I hope the eastward trend continues.  I don't want to see the eye-wall going right over us.


Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net

9/6/15 Report - Bernard Romans And The 1715 Fleet. Tropical Storm Grace.

Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.


You might know the name Bernard Romans.  In 1775 he wrote the book, A Concise Natural History of East and West Florida.  As luck would have it, he turned out to be a well known name in treasure history.  It wasn't his intent.  He wasn't a treasure hunter.  He just happened to mention the shipwrecks of the 1715 Fleet that littered the area around Sebastian River back in the 1770s.

In 1962, the University of Florida Press reprinted his book, and it became a resource that was read by those seeking more information about the shipwrecks and the pistareens mentioned by Romans that were found in the sand after "strong eastern gales."

As is the case so often, history is produced by the alignment of circumstances.  Some moments become highlighted in the story of man - disproportionately so - sticking out in memory like stars in a night sky.   Many more moments, just as important and just as necessary, fade from memory and are never told.  The fact that they fade into oblivion makes them no less important and no less necessary to the flow of events.

Isn't it the little things we do, the countless moments, tasks and dreams that fill the vast space between the few over-remembered times and events that really makes us who we are?

Everyone knows the name Shakespeare, but who actually knows the man?  Who really cares? Is he anymore than a name?  He is not your grandma, brother, wife or son.  He doesn't touch your life like any one of them.   And he doesn't touch other's lives like you do today.

We need statues and monuments,  They may be hollow, but they are shared.  As much myth as fact, they provide the tapestry of human consciousness that unites us with a sense of common story.

Hidden in life are countless precious moments much like gold coins buried under sand. Many remain undiscovered.  They just don't grab our attention at the time.  They are just there.

Maybe moments like that are not important to anyone but you, but that makes them all the more unique and rare.  They belong to you and are to be shared with those you care about the most.  Take the time to seek out those moments, dig them up, hold them, admire them, jump up and down, share, and celebrate, like they were the most precious treasure you ever imaged.

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I certainly didn't know where that was going when I started.  I'll leave it there for now even though it may seem a rambling meaningless mess to many of you.  It is more me than most of what I write.

Back to Bernard Romans.  He was a historical figure in many ways, though most of us know him for his mention of the 1715 Fleet.  He was a real person - a complex and many talented person at that.  He was a botanist, engineer and participant in the Revolutionary War.

The original printing of his book is rare and valuable.  Those who later used it for research undoubtedly read the 1962 reprint.  The original is that rare.

I highly recommend reading the Introduction to the reprint edition written by Partick Rembert.   It tells a lot about Romans and his work.

You might find much of the book of interest.  Romans mentions other shipwrecks and hurricanes as well as many interesting observations on the nature of Florida at the time.

Here is a link to the complete online book.

http://ufdc.ufl.edu/UF00095971/00001

Here is a sample page.  At the bottom of this page you will see his mention of the pistareens.


As you can see, they use "f" for "s."

It is an interesting book.

Thanks to the University of Florida Press for reprinting the book and making it available online.

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On the Treasure Coast we'll have a one foot surf for the next couple of days.

Fred is sputtering out in the mid-Atlantic.

We now have Tropical Storm Grace that could head this way.  Here is the projected path of Grace.

Happy hunting,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net