Wednesday, August 3, 2011

8/3/11 Report - Emily and the Beach Detecting Conditions Scale

Emily Forecast.

If you compare this track with the one I showed yesterday you will notice that the track is now a little farther to the east and only the East Coast of Florida is now in the cone.

If this track is correct, that would put the center of the storm over the Bahamas, quite a few miles away. They do show it turning into a hurricane, but not until it is much farther north.

The wind is now from the northwest and the waves, what there are of them, are coming in directly from the east.

The surf web sites are now, once again, predicting an increase in waves for this weekend, but not peaking until Sunday.

They are not predicting the eight foot seas that were predicted earlier this week. They often predict high waves and then back off as the time approaches. I've talked about that a lot in the past. I think their models have a systematic error.

Anyway, if the surf web sites are right this time, we'll be getting 3.5 foot seas on Saturday and 4 foot seas on Sunday. That isn't nearly what they originally predicted, but it still could produce some erosion if the waves hit the beach at the right angle.

It is worth watching. You never know. Things could still change very significantly.



I haven't been giving daily beach conditions ratings lately. Things haven't changed enough to bother. I'd be getting tired of issuing "1" ratings everyday. But since I haven't even referred to my rating scale much lately and with the possibility of some new storms coming during the hurricane season, it is probably a good time for me to go over my scale for those of you who haven't been reading this blog since I last explained it.

First I refer to my scale as the Treasure Beach Detecting Conditions Scale (TBDCS)* . It is a five point scale indicating how good conditions are for finding old shipwreck treasure cobs or coins on a beach. When referred to in this blog, I am usually talking about the Treasure Coast treasure beaches and refer to the scale as the Treasure Coast TBDCS.

The scale describes current conditions for finding old treasure cobs or coins, but also includes other small items composed of precious metals, such as shipwreck jewelry. The scale does NOT provide an estimate of the probability of finding other types of items, such as those made of other materials, such as iron, glass, pottery, wood, etc.

The beach detecting conditions rating is always specific to a geographic area. The Treasure Coast is just one example.

When applied to a particular location, the scale will usually be preceded by the name of the area for which it is being used, such as the Florida Panhandle or Florida Keys.

Using the TBDCS, a rating of "1" indicates poor conditions, "2" indicates fair conditions, "3" good conditions, "4" very good, and "5" excellent.

Poor conditions are defined as virtually no cuts or erosion, with building beaches and mushy sand extending east into the water. When I say virtually no cuts or erosion, there can be small (less than one foot high) superficial scattered cuts on some beach fronts.

Fair conditions and a "2" rating means that there is some scattered cuts or erosion confined to the front beach areas, usually three feet or less and only found on some of the beaches.

Good conditions and a "3" rating indicates extensive three foot or greater cuts cutting back into the middle beach area either on several beaches or very extensively on one or more well known treasure beaches.

Very good conditions and a "4" rating indicates three foot or greater cuts moving far back into the middle beach often with some water hitting the back dunes and possibly some slight erosion of the back beach or dune areas in a few areas.

Excellent conditions and a "5" rating indicates extensive movement of sand from both the front beach and middle beach with significant erosion of the back beach or dunes at many areas.

The above descriptions are general and an represent an average. As you probably know, one beach can be very cut while another builds. I average conditions, weighing the primary treasure sites most heavily. There can be site-specific special situations in which one site is considerably different than the others, but that can affect the overall rating.

The rating scale can be used to rate other beaches that are not shipwreck treasure beaches. In that case the scale is different because it takes a lot less to open the door to modern treasures.

When the scale is used to describe beaches where the primary target is not shipwreck treasure, the "Treasure" is dropped from the name of the scale. It is then simply the Beach Detecting Conditions Scale (BDCS).

I'll describe the modifications to the scale for coin and jewelry hunting some other time.

NOTE: Treasure Beach Detecting Conditions Scale and TBDCS are trade marked, as are Beach Detecting Conditions Scale and BDCS.

Gold is over $1670 per ounce today and seems to be heading for $1700.

I'll keep watching Emily.

Happy hunting,