Wednesday, August 22, 2012

8/22/12 Report - Isaac Update

Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of

Wednesday Morning NOAA Update

Isaac seems to be coming our way.  The track projected by NOAA has Isaac hitting Florida a little after 2 AM Monday near the northern end of the Keys.  However both the East and West Coast of Florida are within the cone and could be where the center lands.   At this point, the predicted wind gusts at that time would be up to 115 mph.  I guess that means it could easily be a Cat 2 or 3 hurricane when it gets here.

The most recent update has Isaac turning north sooner than previously predicted.   The earlier track took it more over Cuba, where I thought it could lose some intensity.

And we have another depression following right behind Isaac.

The surf web sites are now predicting around ten foot seas on the Treasure Coast by Monday.   That of course is higher than the five to eight foot seas predicted earlier.

The wind direction will be northeast over the weekend and into Monday too.  The combination of high seas and the northeast wind indicates a good chance of a lot of beach erosion and a very good chance of improved beach detecting conditions. 

As I've commented before, there is something about north and northeast winds that results in more cobs being found on the beach.  Similar amounts of erosion produced by southeast winds just doesn't seem to produce as many cobs even when there is good erosion.  I think I've expressed my theory on that in the past.

I'd much rather these storms fall apart and become less than hurricanes.   If we take too much of a hit the beaches will be closed.  I'd rather not have a hurricane and it really doesn't take a hurricane hit to  improve beach detecting conditions.

The seas are still calm today.  They'll start to increase on Friday.

Low tide today is between 6 and 6:30.

If you want to see the anchor at Dollman Beach, take the path to the beach, turn right and walk 75 to 100 yards, I would guess.  Look for a big old log laying  up by Sea Oats.  The anchor is out in the water about 20 or 30 yards directly East of the log.  Just look.  It could easily disappear this weekend.

That is all for now.   I'll keep an eye on Isaac.

UPDATE:  As of 1 PM, it now looks like Isaac is predicted to pass more over Cuba again, as was predicted yesterday, and that will reduce the intensity.  It now seems like it will be a Cat 1 when it hits Florida, if it does, and the track takes it a little more to the West.

Happy hunting,