Written by the TreasureGuide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.
 |
| Speghetti Model Tracks for Irma After the 11:00 AM Labor Day Update. Source: Weather Underground web site. |
Irma is still about a week away. It is too early to tell where she'll go.
As you can see from the above, different models are showing very different tracks. They have it anywhere from Virginia to the Gulf and Panhandle of Florida.
Overall, the track has been moving more to the west. The Ventusky and Windyty web sites vary. One still has Irma passing to the east of the Florida Coast and passing very close to the Treasure Coast, while the other has it going in around Naples, like the white line shown above, and then proceeding up along the west coast of Florida. It is just too early to tell when it is going to turn north. On average, over the last day or two the projections have been moving more to the west.
That is about all I have to say about it for now. I'll update this post as more information comes in.
That is all for now.
Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net
----
MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it looks more and more like the predictions are starting to settle more on the Florida East Coast. The Weather Underground web site showed the predicted tracks based upon six different models. One goes way east of us, three very near us, and two going over Cuba.
Five of those six models were initialized at 2 PM, and the other one was initialized at 8 AM Monday.
The 5 PM nhc.noaa.gov cone of uncertainty is just a touch more to the north than the 2 PM update showed.
The following is the same map I showed at the top of the page, but it is the 5 PM update.
Notice how there is now one group going right over the Treasure Coast and another group going over Cuba.
There is still a lot of time for things to change, but there seems to be a definite trend with more tracks going over or near the Florida East Coast.
I forgot to mention that MagicSeaWeed is predicted something like a ten to twelve foot surf for Sunday, which is the peak.
Keep watching.
TreasureGuide @comcast.net
----
MONDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE.
While there is still a lot of uncertainty, it looks more and more like the predictions are starting to settle more on the Florida East Coast. The Weather Underground web site showed the predicted tracks based upon six different models. One goes way east of us, three very near us, and two going over Cuba.
 |
| Three of Seix Models Showing a Track Over or Very Near the Treasure Coast. Source: wunderground.com |
The 5 PM nhc.noaa.gov cone of uncertainty is just a touch more to the north than the 2 PM update showed.
The following is the same map I showed at the top of the page, but it is the 5 PM update.
 |
| Source: https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma |
Notice how there is now one group going right over the Treasure Coast and another group going over Cuba.
There is still a lot of time for things to change, but there seems to be a definite trend with more tracks going over or near the Florida East Coast.
I forgot to mention that MagicSeaWeed is predicted something like a ten to twelve foot surf for Sunday, which is the peak.
Keep watching.
TreasureGuide @comcast.net
