Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.
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| Track of Irma So Far Source: Wunderground.com |
Above you can see the curvy track of Irma.
Below is the cone from NHC after the 5 AM advisory. That track takes the eye right over Fort Pierce and the Treasure Coast. It will still be a very strong hurricane.
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| NHC Cone After 5 AM Advisory. Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
Of course, there isn't 100% certainty of the future track.
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| Probability of Tropical Storm Force Winds. Source: nhc.noaa.gov |
Above you can see the probability of tropical-storm-force winds hitting the Treasure Coast. It shows that at the time of the prediction, there was a 80 - 90 percent chance that the Treasure Coast would receive tropical-storm-force winds. The probability of hurricane-force winds, as estimated at about the same time, was less than 50 percent.
The point of that is that there is still uncertainty about the track of Irma. Although both the Euro and FGS models are very similar now and have the eye-wall passing over or very close to Fort Pierce, it could vary. As you can see above, the cone still extended well out into the Gulf and into the Atlantic, so it still could end up going right over us or into the Gulf or out in the Atlantic. I really don't want the eye-wall over us or real close to us.
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I've heard from detectorists from out of state that want to run down to the Treasure Coast on Sunday and do a little detecting. That could be a very serious mistake. HURRICANES ARE VERY DANGEROUS. Hurricanes kill people and cause serious damage and real human suffering.
I can tell you right now that I will not be out there Sunday. I will be taking care of people who need assistance. I probably wouldn't be out there Sunday even if I didn't have those other responsibilities. There will likely be many people who really need some assistance.
When the storm passes, unless it passes way off the present predicted course, things will be a mess. There is likely to be downed trees and power lines across the road. People will be coming out and looking at the damage and wondering how they are going to go on. Beach accesses will be closed. Roads and bridges will be closed. Roads might be flooded or washed away. You might not be able to get where you want to go.
There could be massive power outages. Gas stations could be closed. And authorities won't want you out on the road to get in the way of emergency efforts.
It is easy to get excited hearing about gold coins on the beach, but hurricanes are dangerous and not totally predictable. There might be good detecting or there might not. Last year, Matthew didn't hit where they thought it would.
This will be especially tricky because there are three hurricanes out there. Hurricane Jose is following closely after Irma, so after Irma passes and everything looks bright and sunny, you might just encounter Jose.
If the beaches are badly damaged, it probably won't be easy to get there, and when you do, you'll encounter other dangers. The high surf could be very dangerous. After a hurricane, the surf contains a lot of debris. Anybody who has been on the beach immediately after a hurricane, probably has a story about nearly getting taken out by a tree trunk thrashing around at the edge of the water. The backwash coming off the dunes can be powerful and dangerous. It doesn't take a hurricane to cause that. It can easily catch you off guard and knock you off your feet and sweep you out. I know of more than one person who has lost a metal detector or other equipment to a rough surf.
I'm especially concerned about people who have never been through a hurricane and unknowingly putting themselves at risk. There are many dangers, and you might not know about the dangers or what you are getting yourself into.
In short, I want you to realize that hurricanes are dangerous and that you should not think of trying to face the storm winds or the dangerous surf after a hurricane for a few coins. I don't want anyone to run out to the beach not knowing what they are getting into and getting hurt or worse. I'd rather you volunteer to help with the recovery efforts. I know I'm being a downer right now, but I want you to realize the very real danger. If you want golden memory for the rest of your life, volunteer and help people who need it.
Another thing people don't realize is that hurricane ravaged beaches can produce for days or even weeks after the hurricane passes. Some of the most amazing finds have been made when the detectorist thought it was too late to find much of anything. Be sure that conditions are safe and you are prepared before you even think about running out to the beach to find some coins.
Be safe,
TreasureGuide@comcast.net
