Friday, November 29, 2013
11/29/13 Report - November Treasure Coast Finds and Poll Results
Written by the Treasureguide for the exclusive use of treasurebeachesreport.blogspot.com.
The most recent blog poll has concluded and the results are in. The results are interesting and combined with the results of a previous poll are very significant to me.
In this poll, there were 100 respondents. That is a good sample size.
First off, 84 percent of those that responded to the poll did not find any cobs or treasure coins. That is a pretty high percentage. So if you did not find one, you are not alone. In fact, you are in the majority.
More than five times the number that found cobs or treasure coins did not. To put it another way only about 15% of those who responded to the poll did find a cob or treasure coin.
My highest Treasure Coast Treasure Beach Detecting Conditions rating during November was a 3. If you generalize from the results of this poll, your chances of finding a cob or treasure coin is something close to 15% when I issue a 3 rating on the scale. And of course a 2 rating would indicate your chances are somewhat less - maybe something more like 1 in 5 or 10 or somewhere in between. I'll continue to try to better calibrate my scale. These numbers do help.
I've always imagined that a 5 rating (excellent conditions) would give you something like a 50/50 chance. Maybe that is too high or two low. I haven't had a 5 rating yet and therefore haven't had the chance to test it out. Maybe I'm trying to make this more precise than is possible. The numbers do give me a good perspective though.
One very interesting thing to me is that of those who found a cob or treasure coin, four times the number found multiple cobs or coins than found a single cob or treasure coin.
This relates to one thing I always taught in this blog since the very beginning. Birds of a feather flock together. In other words, if you find one of an item, there is a good chance that there are more of the same or similar items. You might remember my discussion about coin lines and holes in previous posts.
A find is more than a find. It is also a sign or indicator. That is one of the big reasons that I discourage the use of too much discrimination. Finds, even junk finds, can provide important information.
I talked about clustering a lot before. The same types of items tend to accumulate near each other on a beach. I've elaborated on that at great length in the past and how density, shape and other factors determine where an item ends up on a beach.
This poll shows that the chances are very good that if you find one cob or treasure coin that you will find a second or third.
In November I know of three cobs that were found in one small area and another found not very far away (probably less than 50 yards) from that.
Somebody asked me not too long ago if they should walk fast or slow when detecting. My answer was walk fast when you are looking for a good spot, but walk slow when you have reason to believe you might have identified a good spot.
One of the better indicators of a good spot is a good find. Again, birds of a feather flock together.
The fact that those who found one cob or treasure also usually found more also suggests that those people were at the right place at the right time. To do that you are either lucky, or have scouted around, read the beaches and focused on the spots that looked better than others.
Of those that did make finds, more found four or more than found a single cob or treasure coin and more than twice as many found 2 or 3 than found a single cob or treasure coin.
Comparing the results of this poll with the results of the poll that I conducted after Sandy, there are some very similar conclusions.
There were 90 respondents in the post-Sandy poll. 15 of those respondents indicated that they had found cobs or treasure coins. That is the same number of people that indicated finding cobs or treasure coins this November. Since the number of respondents is a very little higher in this poll, percentage wise a slightly smaller number found cobs in November, but that is a very small and undoubtedly insignificant difference. As I recall, my highest beach conditions rating during Sandy was also a 3.
I'll have to look it up to make sure that is correct. If I did issue a 4 rating during Sandy, it was for a very short time.
In conclusion, if you were wondering if you were the only one that did or didn't find anything, now you know you are not alone, but more people did not make a find than did and many of those who did make a find made multiple finds.
The high surf that was predicted for 7/12 has disappeared from the predictions. Too bad.
A 6 foot surf is possible for tomorrow on the Treasure Coast. The wind is also from the North again.
I'm sticking with a 1(poor) rating on my beach detecting conditions scale for now.